气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1920986117
	Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks
	Bosetti P.; Poletti P.; Stella M.; Lepri B.; Merler S.; de Domenico M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	30118
结束页码	30125
卷号	117 期号:48
英文摘要	Political and environmental factors—e.g., regional conflicts and global warming—increase large-scale migrations, posing extraordinary societal challenges to policymakers of destination countries. A common concern is that such a massive arrival of people—often from a country with a disrupted healthcare system—can increase the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks like measles. We analyze human flows of 3.5 million (M) Syrian refugees in Turkey inferred from massive mobile-phone data to verify this concern. We use multilayer modeling of interdependent social and epidemic dynamics to demonstrate that the risk of disease reemergence in Turkey, the main host country, can be dramatically reduced by 75 to 90% when the mixing of Turkish and Syrian populations is high. Our results suggest that maximizing the dispersal of refugees in the recipient population contributes to impede the spread of sustained measles epidemics, rather than favoring it. Targeted vaccination campaigns and policies enhancing social integration of refugees are the most effective strategies to reduce epidemic risks for all citizens. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Human mobility; Infectious diseases; Multiplex networks; Population dynamics
语种	英语
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160706
作者单位	Bosetti, P., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy, Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, 75015, France; Poletti, P., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; Stella, M., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; Lepri, B., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; Merler, S., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy; de Domenico, M., Center for Information and Communications Technology, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Povo (Trento), 38123, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bosetti P.,Poletti P.,Stella M.,et al. Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks[J],2020,117(48).
APA	Bosetti P.,Poletti P.,Stella M.,Lepri B.,Merler S.,&de Domenico M..(2020).Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(48).
MLA	Bosetti P.,et al."Heterogeneity in social and epidemiological factors determines the risk of measles outbreaks".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.48(2020).