气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2013182117
	The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections
	Baker R.E.; Park S.W.; Yang W.; Vecchi G.A.; Jessica E. Metcalf C.; Grenfell B.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	30547
结束页码	30553
卷号	117 期号:48
英文摘要	Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARSCoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021–2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	COVID-19 \| RSV \| influenza \| nonpharmaceutical interventions
语种	英语
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160705
作者单位	Baker, R.E., Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Park, S.W., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Yang, W., Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Vecchi, G.A., Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Jessica E. Metcalf, C., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Grenfell, B.T., Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Woodrow Wilson School of ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Baker R.E.,Park S.W.,Yang W.,et al. The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections[J],2020,117(48).
APA	Baker R.E.,Park S.W.,Yang W.,Vecchi G.A.,Jessica E. Metcalf C.,&Grenfell B.T..(2020).The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(48).
MLA	Baker R.E.,et al."The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.48(2020).