气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1714511115
	Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades
	Kharouba H.M.; Ehrlén J.; Gelman A.; Bolmgren K.; Allen J.M.; Travers S.E.; Wolkovich E.M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	5211
结束页码	5216
卷号	115 期号:20
英文摘要	Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348–2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator–prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	Baseline; Global warming; Mismatch; Time series; Trophic interactions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; climate change; community ecology; ecosystem; environmental aspects and related phenomena; environmental temperature; global shift; greenhouse effect; phenology; priority journal; species interaction; synchrony; time series analysis; trend study; animal; climate change; competitive behavior; ecosystem; metamorphosis; phenotype; population dynamics; predation; season; species difference; statistical model; temperature; time factor; Animals; Climate Change; Competitive Behavior; Ecosystem; Metamorphosis, Biological; Models, Statistical; Phenotype; Population Dynamics; Predatory Behavior; Seasons; Species Specificity; Temperature; Time Factors
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160517
作者单位	Kharouba, H.M., Center for Population Biology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States, Department of Biology, University of OttawaON K1N 6N5, Canada; Ehrlén, J., Department of Ecology, Environment, and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Gelman, A., Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Bolmgren, K., Unit for Field-Based Forest Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lammhult, SE-363 94, Sweden; Allen, J.M., Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, United States; Travers, S.E., Department of Biological Sciences, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND 58108, United States; Wolkovich, E.M., Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA 02130, United States, Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kharouba H.M.,Ehrlén J.,Gelman A.,et al. Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades[J],2018,115(20).
APA	Kharouba H.M..,Ehrlén J..,Gelman A..,Bolmgren K..,Allen J.M..,...&Wolkovich E.M..(2018).Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,115(20).
MLA	Kharouba H.M.,et al."Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115.20(2018).