气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1921260117
	Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry
	Rao A.; Burgess M.G.; Kaffine D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	12756
结束页码	12762
卷号	117 期号:23
英文摘要	The space industry’s rapid recent growth represents the latest tragedy of the commons. Satellites launched into orbit contribute to—and risk damage from—a growing buildup of space debris and other satellites. Collision risk from this orbital congestion is costly to satellite operators. Technological and managerial solutions—such as active debris removal or end-of-life satellite deorbit guidelines—are currently being explored by regulatory authorities. However, none of these approaches address the underlying incentive problem: satellite operators do not account for costs they impose on each other via collision risk. Here, we show that an internationally harmonized orbital-use fee can correct these incentives and substantially increase the value of the space industry. We construct and analyze a coupled physical–economic model of commercial launches and debris accumulation in low-Earth orbit. Similar to carbon taxes, our model projects an optimal fee that rises at a rate of 14% per year, equal to roughly $235,000 per satellite-year in 2040. The long-run value of the satellite industry would more than quadruple by 2040—increasing from around $600 billion under business as usual to around $3 trillion. In contrast, we project that purely technological solutions are unlikely to fully address the problem of orbital congestion. Indeed, we find debris removal sometimes worsens economic damages from congestion by increasing launch incentives. In other sectors, addressing the tragedy of the commons has often been a game of catch-up with substantial social costs. The infant space industry can avert these costs before they escalate. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Common-pool resources; Externalities; Satellite tax
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; astronomy; controlled study; cost; economic model; industry; marketing; orbital use fee; physical economic model; priority journal; profit; space industry; tax
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160286
作者单位	Rao, A., Department of Economics, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT 05753, United States; Burgess, M.G., Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States, Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, United States, Department of Economics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80302, United States; Kaffine, D., Department of Economics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80302, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rao A.,Burgess M.G.,Kaffine D.. Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry[J],2020,117(23).
APA	Rao A.,Burgess M.G.,&Kaffine D..(2020).Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(23).
MLA	Rao A.,et al."Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.23(2020).