气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-689-2018
	Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model
	Lee S.; Yeo I.-Y.; Sadeghi A.M.; McCarty G.W.; Hively W.D.; Lang M.W.; Sharifi A.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	689
结束页码	708
卷号	22 期号:1
英文摘要	Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21%), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0°C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21% and elevated CO2 concentration of 850ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52%, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0°C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13%, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of 1/4 70% relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2kgNha'1 in nitrate yield relative to the watershed with a lower percent of croplands as a result of increased export of nitrate derived from fertilizer. The watershed dominated by poorly drained soils showed increased nitrate removal due do enhanced denitrification compared to the watershed dominated by well-drained soils. Our findings suggest that increased implementation of conservation practices would be necessary for this region to mitigate increased nitrate loads associated with predicted changes in future climate. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Barium compounds; Budget control; Carbon dioxide; Climate models; Climatology; Crops; Land use; Nitrates; Rain; Sensitivity analysis; Soils; Stream flow; Surface water resources; Surface waters; Water quality; Water resources; Watersheds; Chesapeake Bay watershed; Climate variability and change; Conservation practices; General circulation model; Hydrological response; Soil and water assessment tool; Water quality problems; Water use efficiency; Climate change; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate effect; coastal plain; comparative study; denitrification; general circulation model; hydrological response; land use; light use efficiency; nitrate; precipitation (climatology); scenario analysis; soil and water assessment tool; streamflow; water quality; water use efficiency; watershed; Chesapeake Bay; United States
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160179
作者单位	Lee, S., Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States, US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD 20705, United States; Yeo, I.-Y., School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States; Sadeghi, A.M., US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD 20705, United States; McCarty, G.W., US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD 20705, United States; Hively, W.D., US Geological Survey, Eastern Geographic Science Center, Reston, VA 20192, United States; Lang, M.W., Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Nation...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee S.,Yeo I.-Y.,Sadeghi A.M.,et al. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model[J],2018,22(1).
APA	Lee S..,Yeo I.-Y..,Sadeghi A.M..,McCarty G.W..,Hively W.D..,...&Sharifi A..(2018).Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(1).
MLA	Lee S.,et al."Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.1(2018).