气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-727-2018
	Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes
	Cross D.; Onof C.; Winter H.; Bernardara P.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	727
结束页码	756
卷号	22 期号:1
英文摘要	Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60g min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed. © 2018 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Flood control; Gages; Rain gages; Risk perception; Flood mitigation; Process representation; Rainfall extremes; Rainfall generation; Rainfall modelling; Rectangular pulse; Risk quantification; Traditional techniques; Rain; drainage; estimation method; extreme event; flood control; gauge; hydrological modeling; model; precipitation assessment; rainfall; risk assessment; Germany; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160174
作者单位	Cross, D., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Onof, C., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Winter, H., EDF Energy RandD UK Centre, Interchange, 81-85 Station Road, Croydon, CR0 2RD, United Kingdom; Bernardara, P., CEREA, EDF RandD, ENPC, 6 quai Watier, Chatou, 78400, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cross D.,Onof C.,Winter H.,et al. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes[J],2018,22(1).
APA	Cross D.,Onof C.,Winter H.,&Bernardara P..(2018).Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(1).
MLA	Cross D.,et al."Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.1(2018).