气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-22-709-2018
	Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River
	Bennett K.E.; Bohn T.J.; Solander K.; McDowell N.G.; Xu C.; Vivoni E.; Middleton R.S.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	709
结束页码	725
卷号	22 期号:1
英文摘要	Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources. © 2018 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Evapotranspiration; Forestry; Risk perception; Rivers; Stream flow; Water management; Water resources; Watersheds; Colorado River Basin; Disturbed systems; Explicit representation; Forest disturbances; Hydrologic modeling; Regional water resources; Streamflow patterns; Waterresource management; Climate change; calibration; climate change; disturbance; evapotranspiration; headwater; hydrological modeling; land cover; low flow; semiarid region; streamflow; water budget; water resource; Colorado Basin [North America]; San Juan River [United States]; United States
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160173
作者单位	Bennett, K.E., Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Bohn, T.J., Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States, School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States; Solander, K., Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; McDowell, N.G., Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354, United States; Xu, C., Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Vivoni, E., School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States; Middleton, R.S., Earth and Environmental Sciences, ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bennett K.E.,Bohn T.J.,Solander K.,et al. Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River[J],2018,22(1).
APA	Bennett K.E..,Bohn T.J..,Solander K..,McDowell N.G..,Xu C..,...&Middleton R.S..(2018).Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(1).
MLA	Bennett K.E.,et al."Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.1(2018).