气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
	Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia
	Zhang Y.; Moges S.; Block P.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	143
结束页码	157
卷号	22 期号:1
英文摘要	Prediction of seasonal precipitation can provide actionable information to guide management of various sectoral activities. For instance, it is often translated into hydrological forecasts for better water resources management. However, many studies assume homogeneity in precipitation across an entire study region, which may prove ineffective for operational and local-level decisions, particularly for locations with high spatial variability. This study proposes advancing local-level seasonal precipitation predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through objective cluster analysis, for western Ethiopia. To our knowledge, this is the first study predicting seasonal precipitation at high resolution in this region, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to precipitation variability given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited water resources infrastructure. The combination of objective cluster analysis, spatially high-resolution prediction of seasonal precipitation, and a modeling structure spanning statistical and dynamical approaches makes clear advances in prediction skill and resolution, as compared with previous studies. The statistical model improves versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for a number of specific clusters in northwestern Ethiopia, with clusters having regional average correlation and ranked probability skill score (RPSS) values of up to 0.5 and 33ĝ€-%, respectively. The general skill (after bias correction) of the two best-performing dynamical models over the entire study region is superior to that of the statistical models, although the dynamical models issue predictions at a lower resolution and the raw predictions require bias correction to guarantee comparable skills. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cluster analysis; Forecasting; Precipitation (meteorology); Rain; Dynamical approaches; High-resolution prediction; Hydrological forecast; Precipitation variability; Ranked probability skill scores; Seasonal precipitations; Statistical modeling; Water resources management; Water resources; climate prediction; cluster analysis; decision analysis; environmental impact assessment; livelihood; precipitation assessment; probability; seasonal variation; spatial variation; vulnerability; water resource; Ethiopia
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160159
作者单位	Zhang, Y., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Moges, S., School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Block, P., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Y.,Moges S.,Block P.. Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia[J],2018,22(1).
APA	Zhang Y.,Moges S.,&Block P..(2018).Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(1).
MLA	Zhang Y.,et al."Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.1(2018).