气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-127-2018
	Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes
	Sene K.; Tych W.; Beven K.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	127
结束页码	141
卷号	22 期号:1
英文摘要	In seasonal flow forecasting applications, one factor which can help predictability is a significant hydrological response time between rainfall and flows. On account of storage influences, large lakes therefore provide a useful test case although, due to the spatial scales involved, there are a number of modelling challenges related to data availability and understanding the individual components in the water balance. Here some possible model structures are investigated using a range of stochastic regression and transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world - Lake Malawi and Lake Victoria - with forecast skill demonstrated several months ahead using water balance models formulated in terms of net inflows. In both cases slight improvements were obtained for lead times up to 4-5 months from including climate indices in the data assimilation component. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Digital storage; Forecasting; Model structures; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Analytical approximation; Data assimilation; Data availability; Exploratory studies; Flow forecasting; Hydrological response; Individual components; Water balance models; Lakes; data assimilation; exploration; flow measurement; forecasting method; hydrological modeling; hydrological response; seasonal variation; transfer function; East African Lakes; Lake Malawi; Lake Victoria
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160158
作者单位	Sene, K., Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, United Kingdom; Tych, W., Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, United Kingdom; Beven, K., Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sene K.,Tych W.,Beven K.. Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes[J],2018,22(1).
APA	Sene K.,Tych W.,&Beven K..(2018).Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(1).
MLA	Sene K.,et al."Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.1(2018).