气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-1391-2018
	Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin
	Fraz Ismail M.; Bogacki W.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1391
结束页码	1409
卷号	22 期号:2
英文摘要	Snow and glacial melt runoff are the major sources of water contribution from the high mountainous terrain of the Indus River upstream of the Tarbela reservoir. A reliable forecast of seasonal water availability for the Kharif cropping season (April-September) can pave the way towards better water management and a subsequent boost in the agro-economy of Pakistan. The use of degree-day models in conjunction with satellite-based remote-sensing data for the forecasting of seasonal snow and ice melt runoff has proved to be a suitable approach for data-scarce regions. In the present research, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) has not only been enhanced by incorporating the glacier (G) component but also applied for the forecast of seasonal water availability from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Excel-based SRM+G takes account of separate degree-day factors for snow and glacier melt processes. All-year simulation runs with SRM+G for the period 2003-2014 result in an average flow component distribution of 53, 21, and 26ĝ€-% for snow, glacier, and rain, respectively. The UIB has been divided into Upper and Lower parts because of the different climatic conditions in the Tibetan Plateau. The scenario approach for seasonal forecasting, which like the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method uses historic meteorology as model forcings, has proven to be adequate for long-term water availability forecasts. The accuracy of the forecast with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 9.5ĝ€-% could be slightly improved compared to two existing operational forecasts for the UIB, and the bias could be reduced to ĝ'2.0ĝ€-%. However, the association between forecasts and observations as well as the skill in predicting extreme conditions is rather weak for all three models, which motivates further research on the selection of a subset of ensemble members according to forecasted seasonal anomalies. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Remote sensing; Reservoirs (water); Runoff; Snow; Water management; Component distributions; Mean absolute percentage error; Mountainous terrain; Operational forecasts; Remote sensing data; Seasonal forecasting; Snowmelt runoff model; Streamflow prediction; Forecasting; agricultural economics; climate conditions; ensemble forecasting; mountain region; remote sensing; reservoir; runoff; satellite data; scenario analysis; seasonal variation; streamflow; water availability; water management; China; Indus Basin; Pakistan; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160105
作者单位	Fraz Ismail, M., Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany, Department of Civil Engineering, Koblenz University of Applied Sciences, Koblenz, Germany; Bogacki, W., Department of Civil Engineering, Koblenz University of Applied Sciences, Koblenz, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fraz Ismail M.,Bogacki W.. Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin[J],2018,22(2).
APA	Fraz Ismail M.,&Bogacki W..(2018).Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(2).
MLA	Fraz Ismail M.,et al."Scenario approach for the seasonal forecast of Kharif flows from the Upper Indus Basin".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.2(2018).