气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-1593-2018
	Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach
	Hanzer F.; Förster K.; Nemec J.; Strasser U.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1593
结束页码	1614
卷号	22 期号:2
英文摘要	A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this - to date - the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862-3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11-165 km2) and glacierization (24-77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0-20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25-80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4-20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011-2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997-2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071-2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate models; Runoff; Snow; Climate projection; Emission scenario; Hydrological impacts; Hydrological regime; Physically based; Process representation; Snow water equivalent; Temporal resolution; Climate change; catchment; climate change; climate prediction; cryosphere; hydrological regime; peak flow; runoff; simulation; snow water equivalent; twenty first century; Alps; Austria; Otztal; Tyrol
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160096
作者单位	Hanzer, F., Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Förster, K., Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany; Nemec, J., ENVEO IT GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria; Strasser, U., Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hanzer F.,Förster K.,Nemec J.,et al. Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach[J],2018,22(2).
APA	Hanzer F.,Förster K.,Nemec J.,&Strasser U..(2018).Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(2).
MLA	Hanzer F.,et al."Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.2(2018).