气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018
	Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
	Melsen L.A.; Addor N.; Mizukami N.; Newman A.J.; Torfs P.J.J.F.; Clark M.P.; Uijlenhoet R.; Teuling A.J.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1775
结束页码	1791
卷号	22 期号:3
英文摘要	Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning. © 2018 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Decision making; Mapping; Runoff; Water resources; Annual runoff; Hydrologic modeling; Hydrologic models; Snow process; Socio-economics; Sources of uncertainty; Water managers; Water resource planning; Climate models; basin management; climate modeling; decision making; discharge; hydrological modeling; mapping method; runoff; uncertainty analysis; United States
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160085
作者单位	Melsen, L.A., Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Addor, N., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Mizukami, N., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Newman, A.J., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Torfs, P.J.J.F., Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Clark, M.P., National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States; Uijlenhoet, R., Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Teuling, A.J., Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Melsen L.A.,Addor N.,Mizukami N.,et al. Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections[J],2018,22(3).
APA	Melsen L.A..,Addor N..,Mizukami N..,Newman A.J..,Torfs P.J.J.F..,...&Teuling A.J..(2018).Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(3).
MLA	Melsen L.A.,et al."Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.3(2018).