气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018
	Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - The role of storm temporal patterns
	Hettiarachchi S.; Wasko C.; Sharma A.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2041
结束页码	2056
卷号	22 期号:3
英文摘要	The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35g%, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170g%. The results also show that regional storage facilities are sensitive to rainfall patterns that are loaded in the latter part of the storm duration, while extremely intense short-duration storms will cause flooding at all locations. This study shows that changes in temporal patterns will have a significant impact on urban/suburban flooding and need to be carefully considered and adjusted to account for climate change when used for the design and planning of future storm water systems. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate models; Flood control; Floods; Hydraulic models; Rain; Storms; Watersheds; Climate change impact; Design and planning; Flood mitigation measures; Hydrologic and hydraulic models; Infrastructure planning; Intensity duration frequencies; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Rising temperatures; Climate change; adaptive management; climate change; climate effect; design; environmental risk; extreme event; flood; NOAA satellite; rainfall; risk assessment; temperature; temporal variation; watershed; United States
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160069
作者单位	Hettiarachchi, S., School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Wasko, C., School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Sharma, A., School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hettiarachchi S.,Wasko C.,Sharma A.. Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - The role of storm temporal patterns[J],2018,22(3).
APA	Hettiarachchi S.,Wasko C.,&Sharma A..(2018).Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - The role of storm temporal patterns.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(3).
MLA	Hettiarachchi S.,et al."Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - The role of storm temporal patterns".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.3(2018).