气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018
	Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model
	Gelati E.; Decharme B.; Calvet J.-C.; Minvielle M.; Polcher J.; Fairbairn D.; Weedon G.P.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2091
结束页码	2115
卷号	22 期号:4
英文摘要	Physically consistent descriptions of land surface hydrology are crucial for planning human activities that involve freshwater resources, especially in light of the expected climate change scenarios. We assess how atmospheric forcing data uncertainties affect land surface model (LSM) simulations by means of an extensive evaluation exercise using a number of state-of-the-art remote sensing and station-based datasets. For this purpose, we use the CO2-responsive ISBA-A-gs LSM coupled with the CNRM version of the Total Runoff Integrated Pathways (CTRIP) river routing model. We perform multi-forcing simulations over the Euro-Mediterranean area (25-75.5°ĝ€N, 11.5°ĝ€W-62.5°ĝ€E, at 0.5° resolution) from 1979 to 2012. The model is forced using four atmospheric datasets. Three of them are based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). The fourth dataset is independent from ERA-Interim: PGF, developed at Princeton University. The hydrological impacts of atmospheric forcing uncertainties are assessed by comparing simulated surface soil moisture (SSM), leaf area index (LAI) and river discharge against observation-based datasets: SSM from the European Space Agency's Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy and Climate Change Initiative projects (ESA-CCI), LAI of the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), and Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) river discharge. The atmospheric forcing data are also compared to reference datasets. Precipitation is the most uncertain forcing variable across datasets, while the most consistent are air temperature and SW and LW radiation. At the monthly timescale, SSM and LAI simulations are relatively insensitive to forcing uncertainties. Some discrepancies with ESA-CCI appear to be forcing-independent and may be due to different assumptions underlying the LSM and the remote sensing retrieval algorithm. All simulations overestimate average summer and early-autumn LAI. Forcing uncertainty impacts on simulated river discharge are larger on mean values and standard deviations than on correlations with GRDC data. Anomaly correlation coefficients are not inferior to those computed from raw monthly discharge time series, indicating that the model reproduces inter-annual variability fairly well. However, simulated river discharge time series generally feature larger variability compared to measurements. They also tend to overestimate winter-spring high flows and underestimate summer-autumn low flows. Considering that several differences emerge between simulations and reference data, which may not be completely explained by forcing uncertainty, we suggest several research directions. These range from further investigating the discrepancies between LSMs and remote sensing retrievals to developing new model components to represent physical and anthropogenic processes. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Remote sensing; Rivers; Runoff; Soil moisture; Space optics; Surface measurement; Time series; Uncertainty analysis; Climate change scenarios; European Space Agency; Fresh water resources; Hydrological assessment; Interannual variability; Land surface hydrology; Land surface modeling; Surface soil moisture; Climate change; air temperature; assessment method; atmospheric forcing; climate change; data set; hydrological response; land surface; leaf area index; model; remote sensing; river discharge; soil moisture; time series; uncertainty analysis; Europe; Mediterranean Region
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160066
作者单位	Gelati, E., CNRM, UMR3589 (Météo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy; Decharme, B., CNRM, UMR3589 (Météo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France; Calvet, J.-C., CNRM, UMR3589 (Météo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France; Minvielle, M., CNRM, UMR3589 (Météo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France; Polcher, J., Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS, UMR8539 (IPSL, CNRS), Paris, France; Fairbairn, D., CNRM, UMR3589 (Météo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Weedon, G.P., Met Office, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gelati E.,Decharme B.,Calvet J.-C.,et al. Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model[J],2018,22(4).
APA	Gelati E..,Decharme B..,Calvet J.-C..,Minvielle M..,Polcher J..,...&Weedon G.P..(2018).Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(4).
MLA	Gelati E.,et al."Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.4(2018).