气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-2073-2018
	Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios
	Gelfan A.; Moreydo V.; Motovilov Y.; Solomatine D.P.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2073
结束页码	2089
卷号	22 期号:4
英文摘要	A long-term forecasting ensemble methodology, applied to water inflows into the Cheboksary Reservoir (Russia), is presented. The methodology is based on a version of the semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) that allows for the calculation of an ensemble of inflow hydrographs using two different sets of weather ensembles for the lead time period: observed weather data, constructed on the basis of the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction methodology (ESP-based forecast), and synthetic weather data, simulated by a multi-site weather generator (WG-based forecast). We have studied the following: (1) whether there is any advantage of the developed ensemble forecasts in comparison with the currently issued operational forecasts of water inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir, and (2) whether there is any noticeable improvement in probabilistic forecasts when using the WG-simulated ensemble compared to the ESP-based ensemble. We have found that for a 35-year period beginning from the reservoir filling in 1982, both continuous and binary model-based ensemble forecasts (issued in the deterministic form) outperform the operational forecasts of the April-June inflow volume actually used and, additionally, provide acceptable forecasts of additional water regime characteristics besides the inflow volume. We have also demonstrated that the model performance measures (in the verification period) obtained from the WG-based probabilistic forecasts, which are based on a large number of possible weather scenarios, appeared to be more statistically reliable than the corresponding measures calculated from the ESP-based forecasts based on the observed weather scenarios. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Meteorology; Reservoirs (water); Corresponding measures; Ecological modeling; Ensemble forecasts; Long-term forecasting; Operational forecasts; Probabilistic forecasts; Semi distributed hydrological models; Streamflow prediction; Weather forecasting; ensemble forecasting; hydrograph; hydrological modeling; hydrological regime; inflow; long-term change; model validation; performance assessment; simulation; snowmelt; streamflow; Cheboksary Reservoir; Nizhegorod; Russian Federation
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160065
作者单位	Gelfan, A., Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Watershed Hydrology Lab., Moscow, Russian Federation, Moscow State University, Geographical Department, Moscow, Russian Federation; Moreydo, V., Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Watershed Hydrology Lab., Moscow, Russian Federation; Motovilov, Y., Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Watershed Hydrology Lab., Moscow, Russian Federation; Solomatine, D.P., Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Watershed Hydrology Lab., Moscow, Russian Federation, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Department of Hydroinformatics, Delft, Netherlands, Delft University of Technology, Water Resources Section, Delft, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gelfan A.,Moreydo V.,Motovilov Y.,et al. Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios[J],2018,22(4).
APA	Gelfan A.,Moreydo V.,Motovilov Y.,&Solomatine D.P..(2018).Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(4).
MLA	Gelfan A.,et al."Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.4(2018).