气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-2269-2018
	Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)
	Mishra V.; Shah R.; Azhar S.; Shah H.; Modi P.; Kumar R.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2269
结束页码	2284
卷号	22 期号:4
英文摘要	India has witnessed some of the most severe historical droughts in the current decade, and severity, frequency, and areal extent of droughts have been increasing. As a large part of the population of India is dependent on agriculture, soil moisture drought affecting agricultural activities (crop yields) has significant impacts on socio-economic conditions. Due to limited observations, soil moisture is generally simulated using land-surface hydrological models (LSMs); however, these LSM outputs have uncertainty due to many factors, including errors in forcing data and model parameterization. Here we reconstruct agricultural drought events over India during the period of 1951-2015 based on simulated soil moisture from three LSMs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), the Noah, and the Community Land Model (CLM). Based on simulations from the three LSMs, we find that major drought events occurred in 1987, 2002, and 2015 during the monsoon season (June through September). During the Rabi season (November through February), major soil moisture droughts occurred in 1966, 1973, 2001, and 2003. Soil moisture droughts estimated from the three LSMs are comparable in terms of their spatial coverage; however, differences are found in drought severity. Moreover, we find a higher uncertainty in simulated drought characteristics over a large part of India during the major crop-growing season (Rabi season, November to February: NDJF) compared to those of the monsoon season (June to September: JJAS). Furthermore, uncertainty in drought estimates is higher for severe and localized droughts. Higher uncertainty in the soil moisture droughts is largely due to the difference in model parameterizations (especially soil depth), resulting in different persistence of soil moisture simulated by the three LSMs. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for the LSMs' uncertainty and consideration of the multi-model ensemble system for the real-time monitoring and prediction of drought over India. © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Crops; Cultivation; Soil moisture; Surface measurement; Uncertainty analysis; Agricultural activities; Community land models; Drought characteristics; Limited observations; Model parameterization; Real time monitoring; Socio-economic conditions; Variable infiltration capacities; Drought; agricultural land; agrometeorology; drought; growing season; hydrological modeling; land surface; numerical model; parameterization; reconstruction; soil moisture; India
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160056
作者单位	Mishra, V., Civil Engineering Dept., Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382355, India; Shah, R., Civil Engineering Dept., Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382355, India; Azhar, S., Civil Engineering Dept., Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382355, India; Shah, H., Civil Engineering Dept., Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382355, India; Modi, P., Civil Engineering Dept., Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382355, India; Kumar, R., UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mishra V.,Shah R.,Azhar S.,et al. Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)[J],2018,22(4).
APA	Mishra V.,Shah R.,Azhar S.,Shah H.,Modi P.,&Kumar R..(2018).Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015).Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(4).
MLA	Mishra V.,et al."Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.4(2018).