气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: The importance of model structure

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-2903-2018
	Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: The importance of model structure
	Pathiraja S.; Anghileri D.; Burlando P.; Sharma A.; Marshall L.; Moradkhani H.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2903
结束页码	2919
卷号	22 期号:5
英文摘要	Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment. © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Economics; Land use; Population statistics; Runoff; Stream flow; Time varying control systems; Catchment hydrology; Change conditions; Hydrologic changes; Meteorological factors; Modeling methodology; Streamflow prediction; Time varying parameter; Time-varying parameter models; Catchments; baseflow; catchment; data assimilation; economic growth; hydrological modeling; hydrological response; land cover; land use change; low flow; parameter estimation; population growth; streamflow; temporal variation; Viet Nam
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/160023
作者单位	Pathiraja, S., Institut für Mathematik, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany, Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Anghileri, D., Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Burlando, P., Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Sharma, A., Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Marshall, L., Water Research Centre, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Moradkhani, H., Department of Civil Construction and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pathiraja S.,Anghileri D.,Burlando P.,et al. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: The importance of model structure[J],2018,22(5).
APA	Pathiraja S.,Anghileri D.,Burlando P.,Sharma A.,Marshall L.,&Moradkhani H..(2018).Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: The importance of model structure.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(5).
MLA	Pathiraja S.,et al."Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: The importance of model structure".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.5(2018).