气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018
	Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event
	Manola I.; Van Den Hurk B.; De Moel H.; Aerts J.C.J.H.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	3777
结束页码	3788
卷号	22 期号:7
英文摘要	In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a "future weather" scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the Pi-Td relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The Pi-Td method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Floods; Linear transformations; Mathematical transformations; Metadata; Numerical models; Precipitation (meteorology); Risk assessment; Dewpoint temperature; Extreme precipitation; Extreme precipitation events; Flood risk assessments; Numerical weather model; Precipitation extremes; Precipitation intensity; Summer precipitation; Numerical methods; environmental risk; extreme event; flood; historical perspective; numerical model; precipitation intensity; risk assessment; temperature effect; Netherlands
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159974
作者单位	Manola, I., Meteorology and Air Quality, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Van Den Hurk, B., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, Netherlands, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; De Moel, H., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, Netherlands; Aerts, J.C.J.H., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Manola I.,Van Den Hurk B.,De Moel H.,et al. Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event[J],2018,22(7).
APA	Manola I.,Van Den Hurk B.,De Moel H.,&Aerts J.C.J.H..(2018).Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(7).
MLA	Manola I.,et al."Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.7(2018).