气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements-an application to the southwest monsoon in India

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-22-5125-2018
	Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements-an application to the southwest monsoon in India
	Ravindranath A.; Devineni N.; Lall U.; Larrauri P.C.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	5125
结束页码	5141
卷号	22 期号:10
英文摘要	Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years 2001 to 2013 using the identified predictors and a non-parametric k-nearest neighbors approach. The accuracy of the adaptive forecasts (2001-2013) was judged based on directional concordance and contingency metrics such as hit/miss rate and false alarms. Based on these criteria, our forecasts were correct 9 out of 13 times, with two misses and two false alarms. The results of these drought forecasts were compared with precipitation forecasts from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). We assert that it is necessary to couple informative water stress indices with an effective forecasting methodology to maximize the utility of such indices, thereby optimizing water management decisions. © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Errors; Mean square error; Nearest neighbor search; Risk management; Water management; Weather forecasting; Irrigation requirements; Leave-one-out cross validations; Management decisions; Methodological frameworks; Precipitation forecast; Ranked probability skill scores; Root mean squared errors; Water risk managements; Risk assessment; Solanum tuberosum
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159896
作者单位	Ravindranath, A., Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Water Resources and Environmental Research, City Water Center, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies, City University of New York (City College), New York, NY 10031, United States; Devineni, N., Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Water Resources and Environmental Research, City Water Center, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies, City University of New York (City College), New York, NY 10031, United States; Lall, U., Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Larrauri, P.C., Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ravindranath A.,Devineni N.,Lall U.,et al. Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements-an application to the southwest monsoon in India[J],2018,22(10).
APA	Ravindranath A.,Devineni N.,Lall U.,&Larrauri P.C..(2018).Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements-an application to the southwest monsoon in India.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(10).
MLA	Ravindranath A.,et al."Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements-an application to the southwest monsoon in India".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.10(2018).