气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: A probabilistic assessment

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018
	Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: A probabilistic assessment
	Collet L.; Harrigan S.; Prudhomme C.; Formetta G.; Beevers L.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	5387
结束页码	5401
卷号	22 期号:10
英文摘要	In an increasing hydro-climatic risk context as a result of climate change, this work aims to identify future hydro-hazard hot-spots as a result of climate change across Great Britain. First, flood and drought hazards were defined and selected in a consistent and parallel approach with a threshold method. Then, a nation-wide systematic and robust statistical framework was developed to quantify changes in frequency, magnitude, and duration, and assess time of year for both droughts and floods, and the uncertainty associated with climate model projections. This approach was applied to a spatially coherent statistical database of daily river flows (Future Flows Hydrology) across Great Britain to assess changes between the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098). The results showed that hydro-hazard hot-spots are likely to develop along the western coast of England and Wales and across north-eastern Scotland, mainly during the winter (floods) and autumn (droughts) seasons, with a higher increase in drought hazard in terms of magnitude and duration. These results suggest a need for adapting water management policies in light of climate change impact, not only on the magnitude, but also on the timing of hydro-hazard events, and future policy should account for both extremes together, alongside their potential future evolution. © 2018 Annales Geophysicae. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Drought; Floods; Hazards; Uncertainty analysis; Water management; Climate change impact; Climatic risks; England and Wales; Probabilistic assessments; Statistical database; Statistical framework; Threshold methods; Water management policy; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; database; drought; flood; hydrometeorology; probability; uncertainty analysis; water management; England; Scotland; United Kingdom; Wales
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159882
作者单位	Collet, L., Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Campus, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, United Kingdom, Irstea, 1 rue Pierre Gilles de Gennes, Antony, 92 160, France; Harrigan, S., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Prudhomme, C., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom; Formetta, G., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Beevers, L., Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Campus, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Collet L.,Harrigan S.,Prudhomme C.,et al. Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: A probabilistic assessment[J],2018,22(10).
APA	Collet L.,Harrigan S.,Prudhomme C.,Formetta G.,&Beevers L..(2018).Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: A probabilistic assessment.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(10).
MLA	Collet L.,et al."Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: A probabilistic assessment".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.10(2018).