气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot

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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-5675-2018
	Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot
	Rubin Y.; Chang C.-F.; Chen J.; Cucchi K.; Harken B.; Heße F.; Savoy H.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	5675
结束页码	5695
卷号	22 期号:11
英文摘要	This paper considers questions related to the adoption of stochastic methods in hydrogeology. It looks at factors affecting the adoption of stochastic methods including environmental regulations, financial incentives, higher education, and the collective feedback loop involving these factors. We begin by evaluating two previous paper series appearing in the stochastic hydrogeology literature, one in 2004 and one in 2016, and identifying the current thinking on the topic, including the perceived data needs of stochastic methods, the attitude in regulations and the court system regarding stochastic methods, education of the workforce, and the availability of software tools needed for implementing stochastic methods in practice. Comparing the state of adoption in hydrogeology to petroleum reservoir engineering allowed us to identify quantitative metrics on which to base our analysis. For impediments to the adoption of stochastic hydrology, we identified external factors as well as self-inflicted wounds. What emerges is a picture much broader than current views. Financial incentives and regulations play a major role in stalling adoption. Stochastic hydrology's blind spot is in confusing between uncertainty with risk and ignoring uncertainty. We show that stochastic hydrogeology comfortably focused on risk while ignoring uncertainty, to its own detriment and to the detriment of its potential clients. The imbalance between the treatment on risk on one hand and uncertainty on the other is shown to be common to multiple disciplines in hydrology that interface with risk and uncertainty. © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Environmental regulations; Groundwater; Hydrogeology; Petroleum analysis; Petroleum reservoir engineering; External factors; Financial incentives; Multiple disciplines; Quantitative metrics; Risk and uncertainty; Stochastic hydrogeology; Stochastic hydrologies; Stochastic methods; Stochastic systems; education; hydrogeology; incentive; literature review; petroleum engineering; reservoir; software; stochasticity
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159866
作者单位	Rubin, Y., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Chang, C.-F., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Chen, J., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Cucchi, K., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Harken, B., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Heße, F., Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, 04318, Germany; Savoy, H., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rubin Y.,Chang C.-F.,Chen J.,et al. Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot[J],2018,22(11).
APA	Rubin Y..,Chang C.-F..,Chen J..,Cucchi K..,Harken B..,...&Savoy H..(2018).Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(11).
MLA	Rubin Y.,et al."Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.11(2018).