气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections; applied to Chinese catchments

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-22-6043-2018
	A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections; applied to Chinese catchments
	Osborne J.M.; Hugo Lambert F.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	6043
结束页码	6057
卷号	22 期号:11
英文摘要	There is a growing desire for reliable 21st-century projections of water availability at the regional scale. Global climate models (GCMs) are typically used together with global hydrological models (GHMs) to generate such projections. GCMs alone are unsuitable, especially if they have biased representations of aridity. The Budyko framework represents how water availability varies as a non-linear function of aridity and is used here to constrain projections of runoff from GCMs, without the need for computationally expensive GHMs. Considering a Chinese case study, we first apply the framework to observations to show that the contribution of direct human impacts (water consumption) to the significant decline in Yellow River runoff was greater than the contribution of aridity change by a factor of approximately 2, although we are unable to rule out a significant contribution from the net effect of all other factors. We then show that the Budyko framework can be used to narrow the range of Yellow River runoff projections by 34%, using a multi-model ensemble and the high-end Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. This increases confidence that the Yellow River will see an increase in runoff due to aridity change by the end of the 21st century. Yangtze River runoff projections change little, since aridity biases in GCMs are less substantial. Our approach serves as a quick and inexpensive tool to rapidly update and correct projections from GCMs alone. This could serve as a valuable resource when determining the water management policies required to alleviate water stress for future generations. © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Functions; Rivers; Runoff; Water management; Emissions scenarios; Future generations; Global climate model; Hydrological models; Multi-model ensemble; Nonlinear functions; Water availability; Water management policy; Climate models; anthropogenic effect; aridity; catchment; climate modeling; hydrological modeling; runoff; twenty first century; water availability; China; Yangtze River; Yellow River
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159846
作者单位	Osborne, J.M., College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Hugo Lambert, F., College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Osborne J.M.,Hugo Lambert F.. A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections; applied to Chinese catchments[J],2018,22(11).
APA	Osborne J.M.,&Hugo Lambert F..(2018).A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections; applied to Chinese catchments.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(11).
MLA	Osborne J.M.,et al."A simple tool for refining GCM water availability projections; applied to Chinese catchments".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.11(2018).