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DOI	10.5194/hess-22-6399-2018
	Using paleoclimate reconstructions to analyse hydrological epochs associated with Pacific decadal variability
	Zhang L.; Kuczera G.; Kiem A.S.; Willgoose G.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	6399
结束页码	6414
卷号	22 期号:12
英文摘要	The duration of dry or wet hydrological epochs (run lengths) associated with positive or negative Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) or Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases, termed Pacific decadal variability (PDV), is an essential statistical property for understanding, assessing and managing hydroclimatic risk. Numerous IPO and PDO paleoclimate reconstructions provide a valuable opportunity to study the statistical signatures of PDV, including run lengths. However, disparities exist between these reconstructions, making it problematic to determine which reconstruction(s) to use to investigate pre-instrumental PDV and run length. Variability and persistence on centennial scales are also present in some millennium-long reconstructions, making consistent run length extraction difficult. Thus, a robust method to extract meaningful and consistent run lengths from multiple reconstructions is required. In this study, a dynamic threshold framework to account for centennial trends in PDV reconstructions is proposed. The dynamic threshold framework is shown to extract meaningful run length information from multiple reconstructions. Two hydrologically important aspects of the statistical signatures associated with the PDV are explored: (i) whether persistence (i.e. run lengths) during positive epochs is different to persistence during negative epochs and (ii) whether the reconstructed run lengths have been stationary during the past millennium. Results suggest that there is no significant difference between run lengths in positive and negative phases of PDV and that it is more likely than not that the PDV run length has been non-stationary in the past millennium. This raises concerns about whether variability seen in the instrumental record (the last ∼ 100 years), or even in the shorter 300-400-year paleoclimate reconstructions, is representative of the full range of variability. © Author(s) 2018.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Risk assessment; Dynamic threshold; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations; Pacific decadal oscillation; Pacific decadal variabilities; Paleoclimate reconstruction; Robust methods; Statistical properties; Statistical signatures; Repair; climate variation; decadal variation; hydrometeorology; methodology; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; paleoclimate; paleohydrology; persistence; reconstruction; threshold
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159829
作者单位	Zhang, L., School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia, Centre for Water, Climate and Land (CWCL), Faculty of Science, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia; Kuczera, G., School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia; Kiem, A.S., Centre for Water, Climate and Land (CWCL), Faculty of Science, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia; Willgoose, G., School of Engineering, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang L.,Kuczera G.,Kiem A.S.,et al. Using paleoclimate reconstructions to analyse hydrological epochs associated with Pacific decadal variability[J],2018,22(12).
APA	Zhang L.,Kuczera G.,Kiem A.S.,&Willgoose G..(2018).Using paleoclimate reconstructions to analyse hydrological epochs associated with Pacific decadal variability.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,22(12).
MLA	Zhang L.,et al."Using paleoclimate reconstructions to analyse hydrological epochs associated with Pacific decadal variability".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22.12(2018).