气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stochastic reconstruction of spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns by inverse hydrologic modelling

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-225-2019
	Stochastic reconstruction of spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns by inverse hydrologic modelling
	Grundmann J.; Hörning S.; Bárdossy A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	225
结束页码	237
卷号	23 期号:1
英文摘要	Knowledge of spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns is required as input for distributed hydrologic models used for tasks such as flood runoff estimation and modelling. Normally, these patterns are generated from point observations on the ground using spatial interpolation methods. However, such methods fail in reproducing the true spatio-Temporal rainfall pattern, especially in data-scarce regions with poorly gauged catchments, or for highly dynamic, small-scale rainstorms which are not well recorded by existing monitoring networks. Consequently, uncertainties arise in distributed rainfall-runoff modelling if poorly identified spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns are used, since the amount of rainfall received by a catchment as well as the dynamics of the runoff generation of flood waves is underestimated. To address this problem we propose an inverse hydrologic modelling approach for stochastic reconstruction of spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns. The methodology combines the stochastic random field simulator Random Mixing and a distributed rainfall-runoff model in a Monte Carlo framework. The simulated spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns are conditioned on point rainfall data from ground-based monitoring networks and the observed hydrograph at the catchment outlet and aim to explain measured data at best. Since we infer a three-dimensional input variable from an integral catchment response, several candidates for spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns are feasible and allow for an analysis of their uncertainty. The methodology is tested on a synthetic rainfall-runoff event on sub-daily time steps and spatial resolution of 1 km2 for a catchment partly covered by rainfall. A set of plausible spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns can be obtained by applying this inverse approach. Furthermore, results of a real-world study for a flash flood event in a mountainous arid region are presented. They underline that knowledge about the spatio-Temporal rainfall pattern is crucial for flash flood modelling even in small catchments and arid and semiarid environments. © Author(s) 2019. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Floods; Inverse problems; Runoff; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Storms; Uncertainty analysis; Distributed hydrologic model; Distributed rainfall-runoff models; Ground-based monitoring; Hydrologic modelling; Rainfall - Runoff modelling; Semi-arid environments; Spatial interpolation method; Stochastic reconstruction; Rain; catchment; flash flood; flood; flood wave; gauge; hydrological modeling; interpolation; methodology; Monte Carlo analysis; rainfall; rainfall-runoff modeling; rainstorm; reconstruction; runoff; spatiotemporal analysis; stochasticity
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159792
作者单位	Grundmann, J., Technische Universität Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Dresden, Germany; Hörning, S., University of Queensland, EAIT, Centre for Coal Seam Gas, Brisbane, Australia; Bárdossy, A., Universität Stuttgart, Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, Stuttgart, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Grundmann J.,Hörning S.,Bárdossy A.. Stochastic reconstruction of spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns by inverse hydrologic modelling[J],2019,23(1).
APA	Grundmann J.,Hörning S.,&Bárdossy A..(2019).Stochastic reconstruction of spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns by inverse hydrologic modelling.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(1).
MLA	Grundmann J.,et al."Stochastic reconstruction of spatio-Temporal rainfall patterns by inverse hydrologic modelling".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.1(2019).