气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: Benefits of the NWP approach

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-493-2019
	Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: Benefits of the NWP approach
	Monhart S.; Zappa M.; Spirig C.; Schär C.; Bogner K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	493
结束页码	513
卷号	23 期号:1
英文摘要	Traditional ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) systems are known to provide a valuable baseline to predict streamflows at the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. They exploit a combination of initial conditions and past meteorological observations, and can often provide useful forecasts of the expected streamflow in the upcoming month. In recent years, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for subseasonal to seasonal timescales have made large progress and can provide added value to such a traditional ESP approach. Before using such meteorological predictions two major problems need to be solved: the correction of biases, and downscaling to increase the spatial resolution. Various methods exist to overcome these problems, but the potential of using NWP information and the relative merit of the different statistical and modelling steps remain open. To address this question, we compare a traditional ESP system with a subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system in three alpine catchments with varying hydroclimatic conditions and areas between 80 and 1700km 2. Uncorrected and corrected (pre-processed) temperature and precipitation reforecasts from the ECMWF subseasonal NWP model are used to run the hydrological simulations and the performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is assessed with commonly used verification scores characterizing different aspects of the forecasts (ensemble mean and spread). Our results indicate that the NWP-based approach can provide superior prediction to the ESP approach, especially at shorter lead times. In snow-dominated catchments the pre-processing of the meteorological input further improves the performance of the predictions. This is most pronounced in late winter and spring when snow melting occurs. Moreover, our results highlight the importance of snow-related processes for subseasonal streamflow predictions in mountainous regions. © Author(s) 2019.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Runoff; Snow; Stream flow; Ensemble prediction systems; Hydroclimatic conditions; Hydrological simulations; Meteorological input; Meteorological observation; Meteorological prediction; Numerical weather prediction models; Streamflow prediction; Weather forecasting; catchment; downscaling; hydrological modeling; hydrometeorology; mountain region; precipitation (climatology); streamflow
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159780
作者单位	Monhart, S., Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Climate Prediction, Zurich Airport, Switzerland, ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland; Zappa, M., Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Spirig, C., Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Climate Prediction, Zurich Airport, Switzerland; Schär, C., ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland; Bogner, K., Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Monhart S.,Zappa M.,Spirig C.,et al. Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: Benefits of the NWP approach[J],2019,23(1).
APA	Monhart S.,Zappa M.,Spirig C.,Schär C.,&Bogner K..(2019).Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: Benefits of the NWP approach.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(1).
MLA	Monhart S.,et al."Subseasonal hydrometeorological ensemble predictions in small- and medium-sized mountainous catchments: Benefits of the NWP approach".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.1(2019).