气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe watershed in northern China

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-621-2019
	More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe watershed in northern China
	Jiao Y.; Yuan X.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	621
结束页码	635
卷号	23 期号:1
英文摘要	Assessment of changes in hydrological droughts at specific warming levels is important for an adaptive water resources management with consideration of the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most studies focused on the response of drought frequency to the warming and neglected other drought characteristics, including severity. By using a semiarid watershed in northern China (i.e., Wudinghe) as an example, here we show less frequent but more severe hydrological drought events emerge at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming levels. We used meteorological forcings from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models under four representative concentration pathways, to drive a newly developed land surface hydrological model to simulate streamflow, and analyzed historical and future hydrological drought characteristics based on the standardized streamflow index. The Wudinghe watershed will reach the 1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming levels around 2015-2034, 2032-2051 and 2060-2079, with an increase in precipitation of 8 %, 9% and 18% and runoff of 27 %, 19% and 44 %, and a drop in hydrological drought frequency of 11 %, 26% and 23% as compared to the baseline period (1986-2005). However, the drought severity will rise dramatically by 184 %, 116% and 184 %, which is mainly caused by the increased variability in precipitation and evapotranspiration. The climate models and the land surface hydrological model contribute to more than 80% of total uncertainties in the future projection of precipitation and hydrological droughts. This study suggests that different aspects of hydrological droughts should be carefully investigated when assessing the impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drought; Global warming; Stream flow; Surface measurement; Water resources; Watersheds; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Drought characteristics; Hydrological droughts; Hydrological modeling; Semi-arid watershed; Standardized streamflow indices; Total uncertainties; Water resources management; Climate models
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159773
作者单位	Jiao, Y., School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210044, China, Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Yuan, X., School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210044, China, Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiao Y.,Yuan X.. More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe watershed in northern China[J],2019,23(1).
APA	Jiao Y.,&Yuan X..(2019).More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe watershed in northern China.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(1).
MLA	Jiao Y.,et al."More severe hydrological drought events emerge at different warming levels over the Wudinghe watershed in northern China".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.1(2019).