气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Streamflow forecast sensitivity to air temperature forecast calibration for 139 Norwegian catchments

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-723-2019
	Streamflow forecast sensitivity to air temperature forecast calibration for 139 Norwegian catchments
	Hegdahl T.J.; Engeland K.; Steinsland I.; Tallaksen L.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	723
结束页码	739
卷号	23 期号:2
英文摘要	In this study, we used meteorological ensemble forecasts as input to hydrological models to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow, with a particular focus on the effect of temperature forecast calibration on the streamflow ensemble forecast skill. In catchments with seasonal snow cover, snowmelt is an important flood-generating process. Hence, high-quality air temperature data are important to accurately forecast streamflows. The sensitivity of streamflow ensemble forecasts to the calibration of temperature ensemble forecasts was investigated using ensemble forecasts of temperature from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) covering a period of nearly 3 years, from 1 March 2013 to 31 December 2015. To improve the skill and reduce biases of the temperature ensembles, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) provided parameters for ensemble calibration, derived using a standard quantile mapping method where HIRLAM, a high-resolution regional weather prediction model, was used as reference. A lumped HBV (Hydrologiska Byräns Vattenbalansavdelning) model, distributed on 10 elevation zones, was used to estimate the streamflow. The results show that temperature ensemble calibration affected both temperature and streamflow forecast skill, but differently depending on season and region. We found a close to 1:1 relationship between temperature and streamflow skill change for the spring season, whereas for autumn and winter large temperature skill improvements were not reflected in the streamflow forecasts to the same degree. This can be explained by streamflow being less affected by subzero temperature improvements, which accounted for the biggest temperature biases and corrections during autumn and winter. The skill differs between regions. In particular, there is a cold bias in the forecasted temperature during autumn and winter along the coast, enabling a large improvement by calibration. The forecast skill was partly related to elevation differences and catchment area. Overall, it is evident that temperature forecasts are important for streamflow forecasts in climates with seasonal snow cover. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Calibration; Catchments; Runoff; Snow; Stream flow; Effect of temperature; Ensemble forecasts; European centre for medium-range weather forecasts; Hydrological models; Seasonal snow cover; Streamflow forecast; Sub-zero temperatures; Temperature forecasts; Weather forecasting; air temperature; calibration; flood; flood forecasting; forecasting method; hydrological modeling; seasonal variation; snowmelt; streamflow; Norway; Hepatitis B virus
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159769
作者单位	Hegdahl, T.J., Department of Hydrology, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 0301, Norway; Engeland, K., Department of Hydrology, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 0301, Norway, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, 0316, Norway; Steinsland, I., Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7034, Norway; Tallaksen, L.M., Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, 0316, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hegdahl T.J.,Engeland K.,Steinsland I.,et al. Streamflow forecast sensitivity to air temperature forecast calibration for 139 Norwegian catchments[J],2019,23(2).
APA	Hegdahl T.J.,Engeland K.,Steinsland I.,&Tallaksen L.M..(2019).Streamflow forecast sensitivity to air temperature forecast calibration for 139 Norwegian catchments.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(2).
MLA	Hegdahl T.J.,et al."Streamflow forecast sensitivity to air temperature forecast calibration for 139 Norwegian catchments".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.2(2019).