气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: An objective cross-validation framework for model selection

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-829-2019
	Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: An objective cross-validation framework for model selection
	Blanchet J.; Paquet E.; Vaittinada Ayar P.; Penot D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	829
结束页码	849
卷号	23 期号:2
英文摘要	We propose an objective framework for selecting rainfall hazard mapping models in a region starting from rain gauge data. Our methodology is based on the evaluation of several goodness-of-fit scores at regional scale in a cross-validation framework, allowing us to assess the goodness-of-fit of the rainfall cumulative distribution functions within the region but with a particular focus on their tail. Cross-validation is applied both to select the most appropriate statistical distribution at station locations and to validate the mapping of these distributions. To illustrate the framework, we consider daily rainfall in the Ardèche catchment in the south of France, a 2260 km2 catchment with strong inhomogeneity in rainfall distribution. We compare several classical marginal distributions that are possibly mixed over seasons and weather patterns to account for the variety of climatological processes triggering precipitation, and several classical mapping methods. Among those tested, results show a preference for a mixture of Gamma distribution over seasons and weather patterns, with parameters interpolated with thin plate spline across the region. © 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Distribution functions; Hazards; Mapping; Rain gages; Runoff; Cross validation; Cumulative distribution function; Gamma distribution; Marginal distribution; Rainfall distribution; Station location; Statistical distribution; Thin plate spline; Rain; catchment; conceptual framework; hazard assessment; inhomogeneity; model validation; precipitable water; precipitation intensity; raingauge; regional climate; seasonality; France
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159760
作者单位	Blanchet, J., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Paquet, E., EDF - DTG, 21 Avenue de l'Europe BP 41, Grenoble Cedex 9, 38040, France; Vaittinada Ayar, P., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Penot, D., EDF - DTG, 21 Avenue de l'Europe BP 41, Grenoble Cedex 9, 38040, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Blanchet J.,Paquet E.,Vaittinada Ayar P.,et al. Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: An objective cross-validation framework for model selection[J],2019,23(2).
APA	Blanchet J.,Paquet E.,Vaittinada Ayar P.,&Penot D..(2019).Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: An objective cross-validation framework for model selection.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(2).
MLA	Blanchet J.,et al."Mapping rainfall hazard based on rain gauge data: An objective cross-validation framework for model selection".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.2(2019).