气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-989-2019
	A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales
	Park J.; Onof C.; Kim D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	989
结束页码	1014
卷号	23 期号:2
英文摘要	A novel approach to stochastic rainfall generation that can reproduce various statistical characteristics of observed rainfall at hourly to yearly timescales is presented. The model uses a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to generate monthly rainfall. Then, it downscales the generated monthly rainfall to the hourly aggregation level using the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) model, a type of Poisson cluster rainfall model. Here, the MBLRP model is carefully calibrated such that it can reproduce the sub-daily statistical properties of observed rainfall. This was achieved by first generating a set of fine-scale rainfall statistics reflecting the complex correlation structure between rainfall mean, variance, auto-covariance, and proportion of dry periods, and then coupling it to the generated monthly rainfall, which were used as the basis of the MBLRP parameterization. The approach was tested on 34 gauges located in the Midwest to the east coast of the continental United States with a variety of rainfall characteristics. The results of the test suggest that our hybrid model accurately reproduces the first- to the third-order statistics as well as the intermittency properties from the hourly to the annual timescales, and the statistical behaviour of monthly maxima and extreme values of the observed rainfall were reproduced well. © 2019 Author(s) 2019.All right reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Rain; Statistics; Stochastic systems; Complex correlation; Rainfall characteristics; Rainfall statistics; Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages; Statistical characteristics; Statistical properties; Stochastic rainfall generations; Stochastic rainfalls; Stochastic models; correlation; model; parameterization; Poisson ratio; rainfall; stochasticity; timescale; Midwest; United States
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159752
作者单位	Park, J., Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul, 04066, South Korea; Onof, C., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Kim, D., Department of Civil Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul, 04066, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Park J.,Onof C.,Kim D.. A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales[J],2019,23(2).
APA	Park J.,Onof C.,&Kim D..(2019).A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(2).
MLA	Park J.,et al."A hybrid stochastic rainfall model that reproduces some important rainfall characteristics at hourly to yearly timescales".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.2(2019).