气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: Development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019
	Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: Development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model
	Ehmele F.; Kunz M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1083
结束页码	1102
卷号	23 期号:2
英文摘要	Various fields of application, such as risk assessments of the insurance industry or the design of flood protection systems, require reliable precipitation statistics in high spatial resolution, including estimates for events with high return periods. Observations from point stations, however, lack of spatial representativeness, especially over complex terrain. Current numerical weather models are not capable of running simulations over thousands of years. This paper presents a new method for the stochastic simulation of widespread precipitation based on a linear theory describing orographic precipitation and additional functions that consider synoptically driven rainfall and embedded convection in a simplified way. The model is initialized by various statistical distribution functions describing prevailing atmospheric conditions such as wind vector, moisture content, or stability, estimated from radiosonde observations for a limited sample of observed heavy rainfall events. The model is applied for the stochastic simulation of heavy rainfall over the complex terrain of southwestern Germany. It is shown that the model provides reliable precipitation fields despite its simplicity. The differences between observed and simulated rainfall statistics are small, being of the order of only ±10 % for return periods of up to 1000 years. © 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Distribution functions; Flood control; Floods; Radiosondes; Rain; Risk assessment; Stochastic systems; Wind effects; Atmospheric conditions; Extreme precipitation; High spatial resolution; Numerical weather model; Orographic precipitation; Radiosonde observations; Statistical distribution function; Stochastic simulations; Stochastic models; climate modeling; complex terrain; convection; extreme event; hydrological modeling; insurance industry; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; radiosonde; stochasticity; wind field; Germany
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159748
作者单位	Ehmele, F., Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Germany; Kunz, M., Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Germany, Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), KIT - Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ehmele F.,Kunz M.. Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: Development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model[J],2019,23(2).
APA	Ehmele F.,&Kunz M..(2019).Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: Development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(2).
MLA	Ehmele F.,et al."Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: Development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.2(2019).