气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1211-2019
	A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions
	Schurz C.; Hollosi B.; Matulla C.; Pressl A.; Ertl T.; Schulz K.; Mehdi B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1211
结束页码	1244
卷号	23 期号:3
英文摘要	Environmental modeling studies aim to infer the impacts on environmental variables that are caused by natural and human-induced changes in environmental systems. Changes in environmental systems are typically implemented as discrete scenarios in environmental models to simulate environmental variables under changing conditions. The scenario development of a model input usually involves several data sources and perhaps other models, which are potential sources of uncertainty. The setup and the parametrization of the implemented environmental model are additional sources of uncertainty for the simulation of environmental variables. Yet to draw well-informed conclusions from the model simulations it is essential to identify the dominant sources of uncertainty. In impact studies in two Austrian catchments the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate discharge and nitrate-nitrogen ( ${NO}_{3}^{-}$ -N) loads under future changing conditions. For both catchments the SWAT model was set up with different spatial aggregations. Non-unique model parameter sets were identified that adequately reproduced observations of discharge and ${NO}_{3}^{-}$ -N loads. We developed scenarios of future changes for land use, point source emissions, and climate and implemented the scenario realizations in the different SWAT model setups with different model parametrizations, which resulted in 7000 combinations of scenarios and model setups for both catchments. With all model combinations we simulated daily discharge and ${NO}_{3}^{-}$ -N loads at the catchment outlets. The analysis of the 7000 generated model combinations of both case studies had two main goals: (i) to identify the dominant controls on the simulation of discharge and ${NO}_{3}^{-}$ -N loads in the two case studies and (ii) to assess how the considered inputs control the simulation of discharge and ${NO}_{3}^{-}$ -N loads. © Author(s) 2019.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate models; Land use; Nitrates; Nitrogen; Runoff; Eco-hydrological models; Environmental systems; Environmental variables; Point source emissions; Scenario development; Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis; Soil and water assessment tool; Sources of uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis; anthropogenic effect; catchment; discharge; environmental conditions; environmental modeling; future prospect; hydrological modeling; nitrate; nitrogen; sensitivity analysis; simulation; soil and water assessment tool; uncertainty analysis; Austria
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159741
作者单位	Schurz, C., Institute for Hydrology and Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria; Hollosi, B., Department of Climate Research, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria; Matulla, C., Department of Climate Research, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria; Pressl, A., Institute of Sanitary Engineering and Water Pollution Control, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria; Ertl, T., Institute of Sanitary Engineering and Water Pollution Control, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria; Schulz, K., Institute for Hydrology and Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria; Mehdi, B., Institute for Hydrology and Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Vienna, Austria, Division of Agronomy, Department of Crop Sciences,...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schurz C.,Hollosi B.,Matulla C.,et al. A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions[J],2019,23(3).
APA	Schurz C..,Hollosi B..,Matulla C..,Pressl A..,Ertl T..,...&Mehdi B..(2019).A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(3).
MLA	Schurz C.,et al."A comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for discharge and nitrate-nitrogen loads involving multiple discrete model inputs under future changing conditions".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.3(2019).