气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019
	Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments
	Meyer J.; Kohn I.; Stahl K.; Hakala K.; Seibert J.; Cannon A.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1339
结束页码	1354
卷号	23 期号:3
英文摘要	Alpine catchments show a high sensitivity to climate variation as they include the elevation range of the snow line. Therefore, the correct representation of climate variables and their interdependence is crucial when describing or predicting hydrological processes. When using climate model simulations in hydrological impact studies, forcing meteorological data are usually downscaled and bias corrected, most often by univariate approaches such as quantile mapping of individual variables, neglecting the relationships that exist between climate variables. In this study we test the hypothesis that the explicit consideration of the relation between air temperature and precipitation will affect hydrological impact modelling in a snow-dominated mountain environment. Glacio-hydrological simulations were performed for two partly glacierized alpine catchments using a recently developed multivariate bias correction method to post-process EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs between 1976 and 2099. These simulations were compared to those obtained by using the common univariate quantile mapping for bias correction. As both methods correct each climate variable's distribution in the same way, the marginal distributions of the individual variables show no differences. Yet, regarding the interdependence of precipitation and air temperature, clear differences are notable in the studied catchments. Simultaneous correction based on the multivariate approach led to more precipitation below air temperatures of 0 °C and therefore more simulated snowfall than with the data of the univariate approach. This difference translated to considerable consequences for the hydrological responses of the catchments. The multivariate biascorrection-forced simulations showed distinctly different results for projected snow cover characteristics, snowmeltdriven streamflow components, and expected glacier disappearance dates. In all aspects-the fraction of precipitation above and below 0 °C, the simulated snow water equivalents, glacier volumes, and the streamflow regime-simulations resulting from the multivariate-corrected data corresponded better with reference data than the results of univariate bias correction. Differences in simulated total streamflow due to the different bias correction approaches may be considered negligible given the generally large spread of the projections, but systematic differences in the seasonally delayed streamflow components from snowmelt in particular will matter from a planning perspective. While this study does not allow conclusive evidence that multivariate bias correction approaches are generally preferable, it clearly demonstrates that incorporating or ignoring inter-variable relationships between air temperature and precipitation data can impact the conclusions drawn in hydrological climate change impact studies in snow-dominated environments. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Catchments; Climate change; Mapping; Runoff; Sensitivity analysis; Snow; Snow melting systems; Stream flow; Bias-correction methods; Climate model simulations; Hydrological climate change; Hydrological response; Hydrological simulations; Multivariate approach; Regional climate modeling; Variable relationships; Climate models; alpine environment; catchment; climate modeling; correction; hydrological modeling; hydrological regime; hydrological response; mountain environment; multivariate analysis; regional climate; simulation; snow cover; snowline; snowmelt; streamflow
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159735
作者单位	Meyer, J., Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, 79098, Germany, Catchment and Eco-Hydrology Research Group, Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Esch-sur-Alzette, 4362, Luxembourg; Kohn, I., Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, 79098, Germany; Stahl, K., Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, 79098, Germany; Hakala, K., Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland; Seibert, J., Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; Cannon, A.J., Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W2Y2, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Meyer J.,Kohn I.,Stahl K.,et al. Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments[J],2019,23(3).
APA	Meyer J.,Kohn I.,Stahl K.,Hakala K.,Seibert J.,&Cannon A.J..(2019).Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(3).
MLA	Meyer J.,et al."Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.3(2019).