气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Precipitation projections using a spatiotemporally distributed method: A case study in the Poyang Lake watershed based on the MRI-CGCM3

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1649-2019
	Precipitation projections using a spatiotemporally distributed method: A case study in the Poyang Lake watershed based on the MRI-CGCM3
	Zhang L.; Chen X.; Lu J.; Fu X.; Zhang Y.; Liang D.; Xu Q.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1649
结束页码	1666
卷号	23 期号:3
英文摘要	To bridge the gap between large-scale GCM (global climate model) outputs and regional-scale climate requirements of hydrological models, a spatiotemporally distributed downscaling model (STDDM) was developed. The STDDM was done in three stages: (1) up-sampling grid-observations and GCM simulations for spatially continuous finer grids, (2) creating the mapping relationship between the observations and the simulations differently in space and time, and (3) correcting the simulation and producing downscaled data to a spatially continuous grid scale. We applied the STDDM to precipitation downscaling in the Poyang Lake watershed using the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model 3), with an acceptable uncertainty of 4.9%. Then we created future precipitation changes from 1998 to 2100 (1998-2012 in the historical scenario and 2013-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario). The precipitation changes increased heterogeneities in temporal and spatial distribution under future climate warming. In terms of temporal patterns, the wet season become wetter, while the dry season become drier. The frequency of extreme precipitation increased, while that of the moderate precipitation decreased. Total precipitation increased, while rainy days decreased. The maximum continuous dry days and the maximum daily precipitation both increased. In terms of spatial patterns, the dry area exhibited a drier condition during the dry season, and the wet area exhibited a wetter condition during the wet season. Analysis with temperature increment showed precipitation changes can be significantly explained by climate warming, with 0.05 and R0.56. The precipitation changes indicated that the downscaling method is reasonable, and the STDDM could be successfully applied to the basin-scale region based on a GCM. The results implied an increasing risk of floods and droughts under global warming, which were a reference for water balance analysis and water resource planning. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drought; Floods; Global warming; Lakes; Risk assessment; Watersheds; Extreme precipitation; Mapping relationships; Meteorological research institutes; Ocean atmosphere general circulation models; Temperature increment; Temporal and spatial distribution; Water balance analysis; Water resource planning; Climate models; atmospheric general circulation model; climate modeling; downscaling; general circulation model; geotechnical mapping; spatial distribution; spatiotemporal analysis; water budget; water management; watershed; wet season; China; Jiangxi; Poyang Lake
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159717
作者单位	Zhang, L., State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; Chen, X., State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China, Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, 330022, China; Lu, J., State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; Fu, X., State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; Zhang, Y., State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; Liang, D., State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; Xu, Q., State Key Laboratory of Information Engine...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang L.,Chen X.,Lu J.,et al. Precipitation projections using a spatiotemporally distributed method: A case study in the Poyang Lake watershed based on the MRI-CGCM3[J],2019,23(3).
APA	Zhang L..,Chen X..,Lu J..,Fu X..,Zhang Y..,...&Xu Q..(2019).Precipitation projections using a spatiotemporally distributed method: A case study in the Poyang Lake watershed based on the MRI-CGCM3.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(3).
MLA	Zhang L.,et al."Precipitation projections using a spatiotemporally distributed method: A case study in the Poyang Lake watershed based on the MRI-CGCM3".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.3(2019).