气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Technical note: Changes in cross- and auto-dependence structures in climate projections of daily precipitation and their sensitivity to outliers

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1741-2019
	Technical note: Changes in cross- and auto-dependence structures in climate projections of daily precipitation and their sensitivity to outliers
	Hnilica J.; Hanel M.; Puš V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1741
结束页码	1749
卷号	23 期号:3
英文摘要	Simulations of regional or global climate models are often used for climate change impact assessment. To eliminate systematic errors, which are inherent to all climate model simulations, a number of post-processing (statistical downscaling) methods have been proposed recently. In addition to basic statistical properties of simulated variables, some of these methods also consider a dependence structure between or within variables. In the present paper we assess the changes in cross- and auto-correlation structures of daily precipitation in six regional climate model simulations. In addition the effect of outliers is explored making a distinction between ordinary outliers (i.e. values exceptionally small or large) and dependence outliers (values deviating from dependence structures). It is demonstrated that correlation estimates can be strongly influenced by a few outliers even in large datasets. In turn, any statistical downscaling method relying on sample correlation can therefore provide misleading results. An exploratory procedure is proposed to detect the dependence outliers in multivariate data and to quantify their impact on correlation structures. © Author(s) 2019.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Large dataset; Statistics; Systematic errors; Climate change impact assessments; Climate model simulations; Correlation structure; Cross and auto correlation; Dependence structures; Regional climate model simulation; Statistical downscaling; Statistical properties; Climate models; climate change; climate effect; climate modeling; data set; downscaling; error analysis; global climate; multivariate analysis; outlier; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; simulation
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159713
作者单位	Hnilica, J., Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague 6 - Suchdol, 165 21, Czech Republic; Hanel, M., Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague 6 - Suchdol, 165 21, Czech Republic; Puš, V., Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, Prague 6 - Suchdol, 165 21, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hnilica J.,Hanel M.,Puš V.. Technical note: Changes in cross- and auto-dependence structures in climate projections of daily precipitation and their sensitivity to outliers[J],2019,23(3).
APA	Hnilica J.,Hanel M.,&Puš V..(2019).Technical note: Changes in cross- and auto-dependence structures in climate projections of daily precipitation and their sensitivity to outliers.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(3).
MLA	Hnilica J.,et al."Technical note: Changes in cross- and auto-dependence structures in climate projections of daily precipitation and their sensitivity to outliers".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.3(2019).