气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The El Niño event of 2015-2016: Climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa

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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019
	The El Niño event of 2015-2016: Climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa
	Rao Kolusu S.; Shamsudduha M.; Todd M.C.; Taylor R.G.; Seddon D.; Kashaigili J.J.; Ebrahim G.Y.; Cuthbert M.O.; Sorensen J.P.R.; Villholth K.G.; Macdonald A.M.; Macleod D.A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1751
结束页码	1762
卷号	23 期号:3
英文摘要	The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East Africa, south of the Equator (EASE), during the major El Niño event of 2015-2016, and their associated impacts on groundwater storage, across scales, through analysis of in situ groundwater piezometry and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. At the continental scale, the El Niño of 2015-2016 was associated with a pronounced dipole of opposing rainfall anomalies over EASE and Southern Africa, north-south of ĝ1/412ĝ S, a characteristic pattern of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over Southern Africa the most intense drought event in the historical record occurred, based on an analysis of the cross-scale areal intensity of surface water balance anomalies (as represented by the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index - SPEI), with an estimated return period of at least 200 years and a best estimate of 260 years. Climate risks are changing, and we estimate that anthropogenic warming only (ignoring changes to other climate variables, e.g. precipitation) has approximately doubled the risk of such an extreme SPEI drought event. These surface water balance deficits suppressed groundwater recharge, leading to a substantial groundwater storage decline indicated by both GRACE satellite and piezometric data in the Limpopo basin. Conversely, over EASE during the 2015-2016 El Niño event, anomalously wet conditions were observed with an estimated return period of ĝ1/410 years, likely moderated by the absence of a strongly positive Indian Ocean zonal mode phase. The strong but not extreme rainy season increased groundwater storage, as shown by satellite GRACE data and rising groundwater levels observed at a site in central Tanzania. We note substantial uncertainties in separating groundwater from total water storage in GRACE data and show that consistency between GRACE and piezometric estimates of groundwater storage is apparent when spatial averaging scales are comparable. These results have implications for sustainable and climate-resilient groundwater resource management, including the potential for adaptive strategies, such as managed aquifer recharge during episodic recharge events. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aquifers; Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Digital storage; Drought; Geodetic satellites; Groundwater resources; Potable water; Risk perception; Surface waters; Uncertainty analysis; Water conservation; Water supply; Anthropogenic warming; Gravity recovery and climate experiment satellites; Ground water recharge; Groundwater resource management; Groundwater storage; Managed aquifer recharges; Southern oscillation; Surface water balances; Recharging (underground waters); anthropogenic effect; climate change; drought; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; evapotranspiration; GRACE; groundwater resource; historical record; recharge; return period; satellite data; spatiotemporal analysis; East Africa; Indian Ocean; Limpopo Basin; Southern Africa; Tanzania
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159712
作者单位	Rao Kolusu, S., Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QS, United Kingdom; Shamsudduha, M., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom, Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Todd, M.C., Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QS, United Kingdom; Taylor, R.G., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Seddon, D., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Kashaigili, J.J., Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania; Ebrahim, G.Y., International Water Management Institute, Pretoria, South Africa; Cuthbert, M.O., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rao Kolusu S.,Shamsudduha M.,Todd M.C.,et al. The El Niño event of 2015-2016: Climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa[J],2019,23(3).
APA	Rao Kolusu S..,Shamsudduha M..,Todd M.C..,Taylor R.G..,Seddon D..,...&Macleod D.A..(2019).The El Niño event of 2015-2016: Climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(3).
MLA	Rao Kolusu S.,et al."The El Niño event of 2015-2016: Climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.3(2019).