气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-1833-2019
	Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin
	Mackay J.D.; Barrand N.E.; Hannah D.M.; Krause S.; Jackson C.R.; Everest J.; Aoalgeirsdóttir G.; Black A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1833
结束页码	1865
卷号	23 期号:4
英文摘要	The flow regimes of glacier-fed rivers are sensitive to climate change due to strong climate cryosphere hydrosphere interactions. Previous modelling studies have projected changes in annual and seasonal flow magnitude but neglect other changes in river flow regime that also have socio-economic and environmental impacts. This study employs a signature-based analysis of climate change impacts on the river flow regime for the deglaciating Virkisá river basin in southern Iceland. Twenty-five metrics (signatures) are derived from 21st century projections of river flow time series to evaluate changes in different characteristics (magnitude, timing and variability) of river flow regime over subdaily to decadal timescales. The projections are produced by a model chain that links numerical models of climate and glacio-hydrology. Five components of the model chain are perturbed to represent their uncertainty including the emission scenario, numerical climate model, downscaling procedure, snow/ice melt model and runoff-routing model. The results show that the magnitude, timing and variability of glacier-fed river flows over a range of timescales will change in response to climate change. For most signatures there is high confidence in the direction of change, but the magnitude is uncertain. A decomposition of the projection uncertainties using analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that all five perturbed model chain components contribute to projection uncertainty, but their relative contributions vary across the signatures of river flow. For example, the numerical climate model is the dominant source of uncertainty for projections of high-magnitude, quick-release flows, while the runoffrouting model is most important for signatures related to lowmagnitude, slow-release flows. The emission scenario dominates mean monthly flow projection uncertainty, but during the transition from the cold to melt season (April and May) the snow/ice melt model contributes up to 23% of projection uncertainty. Signature-based decompositions of projection uncertainty can be used to better design impact studies to provide more robust projections. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Analysis of variance (ANOVA); Climate models; Decomposition; Environmental impact; Numerical models; Rivers; Snow; Stream flow; Uncertainty analysis; Watersheds; Chain components; Climate change impact; Emission scenario; Modelling studies; Projection uncertainty; Relative contribution; River flow time series; Robust projection; Climate change; climate change; environmental impact; numerical model; rainfall-runoff modeling; river basin; river flow; snowmelt; time series; uncertainty analysis; variance analysis; Iceland
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159708
作者单位	Mackay, J.D., School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom, British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, United Kingdom; Barrand, N.E., School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Hannah, D.M., School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Krause, S., School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Jackson, C.R., British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, United Kingdom; Everest, J., British Geological Survey, Lyell Centre, Research Avenue South, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, United Kingdom; Aoalgeirsdóttir, G., Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, 101, Iceland; Black, A., G...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mackay J.D.,Barrand N.E.,Hannah D.M.,et al. Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin[J],2019,23(4).
APA	Mackay J.D..,Barrand N.E..,Hannah D.M..,Krause S..,Jackson C.R..,...&Black A..(2019).Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(4).
MLA	Mackay J.D.,et al."Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.4(2019).