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DOI | 10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019 |
Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016 | |
Ahmed K.; Shahid S.; Wang X.; Nawaz N.; Khan N. | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 1027-5606 |
起始页码 | 3081 |
结束页码 | 3096 |
卷号 | 23期号:7 |
英文摘要 | The changing characteristics of aridity over a larger spatiotemporal scale have gained interest in recent years due to climate change. The long-term (1901-2016) changes in spatiotemporal patterns of annual and seasonal aridity during two major crop growing seasons of Pakistan, Kharif and Rabi, are evaluated in this study using gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. The UNESCO aridity index was used to estimate aridity at each grid point for all the years between 1901 and 2016. The temporal changes in aridity and its associations with precipitation and PET are evaluated by implementing a moving window of 50 years of data with an 11-year interval. The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test is applied to estimate unidirectional change by eliminating the effect of natural variability of climate, and Pettitt's test is used to detect year of change in aridity. The results revealed that the climate over 60 % of Pakistan (mainly in southern parts) is arid. The spatial patterns of aridity trends show a strong influence of the changes in precipitation on the aridity trend. The increasing trend in aridity (drier) is noticed in the southwest, where precipitation is low during Kharif, while there is a decreasing trend (wetter) in the Rabi season in the region which receives high precipitation due to western disturbances. The annual and Kharif aridity is found to decrease (wetter) at a rate of 0.0001 to 0.0002 per year in the northeast, while Kharif and Rabi aridity are found to increase (drier) at some locations in the south at a rate of - 0:0019 to -0:0001 per year. The spatial patterns of aridity changes show a shift from arid to the semi-arid (wetter) climate in annual and Kharif over a large area while showing a shift from arid to hyperarid (drier) region during Rabi in a small area. Most of the significant changes in precipitation and aridity are observed in the years between 1971 and 1980. Overall, aridity is found to increase (drier) in 0.52 %, 4.44 % and 0.52 % of the area and decrease (wetter) in 11.75 %, 7.57 % and 9.66 % of the area for annual, Rabi and Kharif seasons respectively during 1967-2016 relative to 1901-1950. © 2019 Author(s). |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | Cultivation; Driers (materials); Growing season; Natural variability; Potential evapotranspiration; Spatial patterns; Spatio-temporal changes; Spatio-temporal scale; Spatiotemporal patterns; Temporal change; Climate change; aridity; climate change; disturbance; potential evapotranspiration; precipitation (climatology); semiarid region; spatiotemporal analysis; UNESCO |
来源期刊 | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159641 |
作者单位 | Ahmed, K., Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia, Faculty of Water Resource Management, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, Balochistan, 90150, Pakistan; Shahid, S., Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia; Wang, X., State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China, Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, China; Nawaz, N., Faculty of Water Resource Management, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, Balochistan, 90150, Pakistan; Khan, N., Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ahmed K.,Shahid S.,Wang X.,et al. Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016[J],2019,23(7). |
APA | Ahmed K.,Shahid S.,Wang X.,Nawaz N.,&Khan N..(2019).Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(7). |
MLA | Ahmed K.,et al."Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901-2016".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.7(2019). |
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