气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-3765-2019
	The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient
	Jennings K.S.; Molotch N.P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	3765
结束页码	3786
卷号	23 期号:9
英文摘要	A critical component of hydrologic modeling in cold and temperate regions is partitioning precipitation into snow and rain, yet little is known about how uncertainty in precipitation phase propagates into variability in simulated snow accumulation and melt. Given the wide variety of methods for distinguishing between snow and rain, it is imperative to evaluate the sensitivity of snowpack model output to precipitation phase determination methods, especially considering the potential of snow-to-rain shifts associated with climate warming to fundamentally change the hydrology of snow-dominated areas. To address these needs we quantified the sensitivity of simulated snow accumulation and melt to rain-snow partitioning methods at sites in the western United States using the SNOWPACK model without the canopy module activated. The methods in this study included different permutations of air, wet bulb and dew point temperature thresholds, air temperature ranges, and binary logistic regression models. Compared to observations of snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE), the binary logistic regression models produced the lowest mean biases, while high and low air temperature thresholds tended to overpredict and underpredict snow accumulation, respectively. Relative differences between the minimum and maximum annual snowfall fractions predicted by the different methods sometimes exceeded 100% at elevations less than 2000m in the Oregon Cascades and Californias Sierra Nevada. This led to ranges in annual peak SWE typically greater than 200 mm, exceeding 400mm in certain years. At the warmer sites, ranges in snowmelt timing predicted by the different methods were generally larger than 2 weeks, while ranges in snow cover duration approached 1 month and greater. Conversely, the three coldest sites in this work were relatively insensitive to the choice of a precipitation phase method, with average ranges in annual snowfall fraction, peak SWE, snowmelt timing, and snow cover duration of less than 18 %, 62 mm, 10 d, and 15 d, respectively. Average ranges in snowmelt rate were typically less than 4mmd1 and exhibited a small relationship to seasonal climate. Overall, sites with a greater proportion of precipitation falling at air temperatures between 0 and 4 -C exhibited the greatest sensitivity to method selection, suggesting that the identification and use of an optimal precipitation phase method is most important at the warmer fringes of the seasonal snow zone. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Climate change; Climate models; Interfacial energy; Rain; Regression analysis; Snow melting systems; Uncertainty analysis; Binary logistic regression models; Dewpoint temperature; Hydrologic modeling; Partitioning methods; Precipitation phase; Snow cover durations; Snow water equivalent; Western United States; Snow; air temperature; dew point; numerical model; regression analysis; sensitivity analysis; snow accumulation; snow water equivalent; snowmelt; snowpack; temperature; California; Oregon; Sierra Nevada [California]; United States
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159609
作者单位	Jennings, K.S., Geography Department, University of Colorado Boulder, 260 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, United States, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, 450 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, United States, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, 1664 N. Virginia Street, Reno, RV 89557, United States, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512, United States; Molotch, N.P., Geography Department, University of Colorado Boulder, 260 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, United States, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, 450 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309, United States, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jennings K.S.,Molotch N.P.. The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient[J],2019,23(9).
APA	Jennings K.S.,&Molotch N.P..(2019).The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(9).
MLA	Jennings K.S.,et al."The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.9(2019).