气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of simulated soil moisture from WRF Noah; Noah-MP; and CLM land surface schemes for landslide hazard application

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-4199-2019
	Assessment of simulated soil moisture from WRF Noah; Noah-MP; and CLM land surface schemes for landslide hazard application
	Zhuo L.; Dai Q.; Han D.; Chen N.; Zhao B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4199
结束页码	4218
卷号	23 期号:10
英文摘要	This study assesses the usability of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulated soil moisture for landslide monitoring in the Emilia Romagna region, northern Italy, during the 10-year period between 2006 and 2015. In particular, three advanced land surface model (LSM) schemes (i.e. Noah, Noah-MP, and CLM4) integrated with the WRF are used to provide detailed multi-layer soil moisture information. Through the temporal evaluation with the single-point in situ soil moisture observations, Noah-MP is the only scheme that is able to simulate the large soil drying phenomenon close to the observations during the dry season, and it also has the highest correlation coefficient and the lowest RMSE at most soil layers. It is also demonstrated that a single soil moisture sensor located in a plain area has a high correlation with a significant proportion of the study area (even in the mountainous region 141 km away, based on the WRF-simulated spatial soil moisture information). The evaluation of the WRF rainfall estimation shows there is no distinct difference among the three LSMs, and their performances are in line with a published study for the central USA. Each simulated soil moisture product from the three LSM schemes is then used to build a landslide prediction model, and within each model, 17 different exceedance probability levels from 1% to 50% are adopted to determine the optimal threshold scenario (in total there are 612 scenarios). Slope degree information is also used to separate the study region into different groups. The threshold evaluation performance is based on the landslide forecasting accuracy using 45 selected rainfall events between 2014 and 2015. Contingency tables, statistical indicators, and receiver operating characteristic analysis for different threshold scenarios are explored. The results have shown that, for landslide monitoring, Noah-MP at the surface soil layer with 30% exceedance probability provides the best landslide monitoring performance, with its hit rate at 0.769 and its false alarm rate at 0.289. © 2019 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Landslides; Moisture control; Rain; Surface measurement; Weather forecasting; Correlation coefficient; Evaluation performance; Exceedance probability; Forecasting accuracy; Receiver operating characteristic analysis; Soil moisture sensors; Statistical indicators; Weather research and forecasting models; Soil moisture; land surface; landslide; soil horizon; soil moisture; surface structure; Italy; United States; Emilia
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159590
作者单位	Zhuo, L., Key Laboratory of VGE, Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China, WEMRC, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Dai, Q., Key Laboratory of VGE, Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China, WEMRC, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, Jiangsu Ctr. for Collab. Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing, China; Han, D., WEMRC, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Chen, N., Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment (IMHE), Sichuan, China; Zhao, B., WEMRC, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhuo L.,Dai Q.,Han D.,et al. Assessment of simulated soil moisture from WRF Noah; Noah-MP; and CLM land surface schemes for landslide hazard application[J],2019,23(10).
APA	Zhuo L.,Dai Q.,Han D.,Chen N.,&Zhao B..(2019).Assessment of simulated soil moisture from WRF Noah; Noah-MP; and CLM land surface schemes for landslide hazard application.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(10).
MLA	Zhuo L.,et al."Assessment of simulated soil moisture from WRF Noah; Noah-MP; and CLM land surface schemes for landslide hazard application".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.10(2019).