气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-23-4803-2019
	Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics
	Ahmed K.; Sachindra D.A.; Shahid S.; Demirel M.C.; Chung E.-S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4803
结束页码	4824
卷号	23 期号:11
英文摘要	The climate modelling community has trialled a large number of metrics for evaluating the temporal performance of general circulation models (GCMs), while very little attention has been given to the assessment of their spatial performance, which is equally important. This study evaluated the performance of 36 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in relation to their skills in simulating mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan using state-of-the-art spatial metrics, SPAtial EFficiency, fractions skill score, Goodman-Kruskal's lambda, Cramer's V, Mapcurves, and Kling-Gupta efficiency, for the period 1961-2005. The multi-model ensemble (MME) precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature data were generated through the intelligent merging of simulated precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature of selected GCMs employing random forest (RF) regression and simple mean (SM) techniques. The results indicated some differences in the ranks of GCMs for different spatial metrics. The overall ranks indicated NorESM1-M, MIROC5, BCC-CSM1-1, and ACCESS1-3 as the best GCMs in simulating the spatial patterns of mean annual, monsoon, winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature over Pakistan. MME precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature generated based on the best-performing GCMs showed more similarities with observed precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature compared to precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature simulated by individual GCMs. The MMEs developed using RF displayed better performance than the MMEs based on SM. Multiple spatial metrics have been used for the first time for selecting GCMs based on their capability to mimic the spatial patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature. The approach proposed in the present study can be extended to any number of GCMs and climate variables and applicable to any region for the suitable selection of an ensemble of GCMs to reduce uncertainties in climate projections. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Decision trees; Efficiency; Climate projection; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; General circulation model; Maximum and minimum temperatures; Multi-model ensemble; Seasonal precipitations; Spatial performance; Temporal performance; Climate models; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; general circulation model; precipitation (climatology); simulation; spatial analysis; temperature effect; Pakistan
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159559
作者单位	Ahmed, K., Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia, Faculty of Water Resource Management, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, Balochistan, 90150, Pakistan; Sachindra, D.A., Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, College of Engineering and Science, Victoria University, P.O. Box 14428, Melbourne, VIC 8001, Australia; Shahid, S., Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia; Demirel, M.C., Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, 34469, Turkey; Chung, E.-S., Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul, 01811, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ahmed K.,Sachindra D.A.,Shahid S.,et al. Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics[J],2019,23(11).
APA	Ahmed K.,Sachindra D.A.,Shahid S.,Demirel M.C.,&Chung E.-S..(2019).Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(11).
MLA	Ahmed K.,et al."Selection of multi-model ensemble of general circulation models for the simulation of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature based on spatial assessment metrics".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.11(2019).