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DOI	10.5194/hess-23-4851-2019
	Spatially dependent flood probabilities to support the design of civil infrastructure systems
	Dong Le P.; Leonard M.; Westra S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4851
结束页码	4867
卷号	23 期号:11
英文摘要	Conventional flood risk methods typically focus on estimation at a single location, which can be inadequate for civil infrastructure systems such as road or railway infrastructure. This is because rainfall extremes are spatially dependent; to understand overall system risk, it is necessary to assess the interconnected elements of the system jointly. For example, when designing evacuation routes it is necessary to understand the risk of one part of the system failing given that another region is flooded or exceeds the level at which evacuation becomes necessary. Similarly, failure of any single part of a road section (e.g., a flooded river crossing) may lead to the wider system's failure (i.e., the entire road becomes inoperable). This study demonstrates a spatially dependent intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) framework that can be used to estimate flood risk across multiple catchments, accounting for dependence both in space and across different critical storm durations. The framework is demonstrated via a case study of a highway upgrade comprising five river crossings. The results show substantial differences in conditional and unconditional design flow estimates, highlighting the importance of taking an integrated approach. There is also a reduction in the estimated failure probability of the overall system compared with the case where each river crossing is treated independently. The results demonstrate the potential uses of spatially dependent intensity-duration-frequency methods and suggest the need for more conservative design estimates to take into account conditional risks. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Crossings (pipe and cable); Railroad transportation; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Rivers; Roads and streets; Civil infrastructure systems; Conservative designs; Evacuation routes; Failure Probability; Integrated approach; Intensity duration frequencies; Railway infrastructure; Rainfall extremes; Floods; civil engineering; design flood; extreme event; flood; flood frequency; infrastructure; integrated approach; probability; risk assessment; spatial analysis
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159556
作者单位	Dong Le, P., School of Civil Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia, Faculty of Water Resources Engineering, Thuyloi University, 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Viet Nam; Leonard, M., School of Civil Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Westra, S., School of Civil Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong Le P.,Leonard M.,Westra S.. Spatially dependent flood probabilities to support the design of civil infrastructure systems[J],2019,23(11).
APA	Dong Le P.,Leonard M.,&Westra S..(2019).Spatially dependent flood probabilities to support the design of civil infrastructure systems.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,23(11).
MLA	Dong Le P.,et al."Spatially dependent flood probabilities to support the design of civil infrastructure systems".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23.11(2019).