气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-24-75-2020
	A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project
	Marthews T.R.; Blyth E.M.; Martínez-De La Torre A.; Veldkamp T.I.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	75
结束页码	92
卷号	24 期号:1
英文摘要	Knowledge of how uncertainty propagates through a hydrological land surface modelling sequence is of crucial importance in the identification and characterisation of system weaknesses in the prediction of droughts and floods at global scale. We evaluated the performance of five state-of-the-art global hydrological and land surface models in the context of modelling extreme conditions (drought and flood). Uncertainty was apportioned between the model used (model skill) and also the satellite-based precipitation products used to drive the simulations (forcing data variability) for extreme values of precipitation, surface runoff and evaporation. We found in general that model simulations acted to augment uncertainty rather than reduce it. In percentage terms, the increase in uncertainty was most often less than the magnitude of the input data uncertainty, but of comparable magnitude in many environments. Uncertainty in predictions of evapotranspiration lows (drought) in dry environments was especially high, indicating that these circumstances are a weak point in current modelling system approaches. We also found that high data and model uncertainty points for both ET lows and runoff lows were disproportionately concentrated in the equatorial and southern tropics. Our results are important for highlighting the relative robustness of satellite products in the context of land surface simulations of extreme events and identifying areas where improvements may be made in the consistency of simulation models. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Digital storage; Drought; Evapotranspiration; Floods; Runoff; Surface measurement; Extreme conditions; Land surface modelling; Land surface models; Model simulation; Model uncertainties; Modelling systems; Precipitation products; Satellite products; Uncertainty analysis; evapotranspiration; extreme event; hydrological modeling; identification method; land surface; precipitation (climatology); prediction; runoff; satellite data; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159532
作者单位	Marthews, T.R., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Blyth, E.M., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Martínez-De La Torre, A., Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Veldkamp, T.I.E., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, HV Amsterdam, 1081, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marthews T.R.,Blyth E.M.,Martínez-De La Torre A.,et al. A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project[J],2020,24(1).
APA	Marthews T.R.,Blyth E.M.,Martínez-De La Torre A.,&Veldkamp T.I.E..(2020).A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(1).
MLA	Marthews T.R.,et al."A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.1(2020).