气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca; Peru)

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-93-2020
	Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca; Peru)
	Mergili M.; Pudasaini S.P.; Emmer A.; Fischer J.-T.; Cochachin A.; Frey H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	93
结束页码	114
卷号	24 期号:1
英文摘要	The Cordillera Blanca in Peru has been the scene of rapid deglaciation for many decades. One of numerous lakes formed in the front of the retreating glaciers is the moraine-dammed Lake Palcacocha, which drained suddenly due to an unknown cause in 1941. The resulting Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) led to dam failure and complete drainage of Lake Jircacocha downstream, and to major destruction and thousands of fatalities in the city of Huaráz at a distance of 23 km. We chose an integrated approach to revisit the 1941 event in terms of topographic reconstruction and numerical back-calculation with the GIS-based open-source mass flow/process chain simulation framework r.avaflow, which builds on an enhanced version of the Pudasaini (2012) two-phase flow model. Thereby we consider four scenarios: (A) and (AX) breach of the moraine dam of Lake Palcacocha due to retrogressive erosion, assuming two different fluid characteristics; (B) failure of the moraine dam caused by the impact of a landslide on the lake; and (C) geomechanical failure and collapse of the moraine dam. The simulations largely yield empirically adequate results with physically plausible parameters, taking the documentation of the 1941 event and previous calculations of future scenarios as reference. Most simulation scenarios indicate travel times between 36 and 70 min to reach Huaráz, accompanied with peak discharges above 10 000m3 s-1. The results of the scenarios indicate that the most likely initiation mechanism would be retrogressive erosion, possibly triggered by a minor impact wave and/or facilitated by a weak stability condition of the moraine dam. However, the involvement of Lake Jircacocha disguises part of the signal of process initiation farther downstream. Predictive simulations of possible future events have to be based on a larger set of back-calculated GLOF process chains, taking into account the expected parameter uncertainties and appropriate strategies to deal with critical threshold effects. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Dams; Erosion; Travel time; Two phase flow; Glacial lake outburst flood; Initiation mechanism; Integrated approach; Parameter uncertainty; Predictive simulations; Simulation framework; Topographic reconstruction; Two phase flow model; Lakes; dam failure; deglaciation; GIS; glacier retreat; moraine; peak discharge; reconstruction; two phase flow; Ancash; Cordillera Blanca; Cordillera Occidental [Peru]; Huaraz; Lake Palcacocha; Peru; Peru
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159531
作者单位	Mergili, M., Institute of Applied Geology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, Vienna, 1190, Austria, Geomorphological Systems and Risk Research, Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Universitätsstraße 7, Vienna, 1010, Austria; Pudasaini, S.P., Geophysics Section, Institute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 176, Bonn, 53115, Germany; Emmer, A., Department of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Belidla 986/4a, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic; Fischer, J.-T., Department of Natural Hazards, Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW), Rennweg 1, Innsbruck, 6020, Austria; Cochachin, A., Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos, Autoridad Nacional Del Agua, Confraternidad Internacional 167, Huaráz, Peru; Frey, H., Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mergili M.,Pudasaini S.P.,Emmer A.,et al. Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca; Peru)[J],2020,24(1).
APA	Mergili M.,Pudasaini S.P.,Emmer A.,Fischer J.-T.,Cochachin A.,&Frey H..(2020).Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca; Peru).Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(1).
MLA	Mergili M.,et al."Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca; Peru)".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.1(2020).