气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-451-2020
	Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates
	Gu L.; Chen J.; Yin J.; C Sullivan S.; Wang H.-M.; Guo S.; Zhang L.; Kim J.-S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	451
结束页码	472
卷号	24 期号:1
英文摘要	The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal to hold global warming to well below 2.0 ĝC and strives to limit it to 1.5 ĝC above preindustrial levels. Droughts with either intense severity or a long persistence could both lead to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure and ecosystem vulnerability, and they are projected to occur more frequently and trigger intensified socioeconomic consequences with global warming. However, existing assessments targeting global droughts under 1.5 and 2.0 ĝC warming levels usually neglect the multifaceted nature of droughts and might underestimate potential risks. This study, within a bivariate framework, quantifies the change in global drought conditions and corresponding socioeconomic exposures for additional 1.5 and 2.0 ĝC warming trajectories. The drought characteristics are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) combined with the run theory, with the climate scenarios projected by 13 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The copula functions and the most likely realization are incorporated to model the joint distribution of drought severity and duration, and changes in the bivariate return period with global warming are evaluated. Finally, the drought exposures of populations and regional gross domestic product (GDP) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are investigated globally. The results show that within the bivariate framework, the historical 50-year droughts may double across 58 % of global landmasses in a 1.5 ĝC warmer world, while when the warming climbs up to 2.0 ĝC, an additional 9 % of world landmasses would be exposed to such catastrophic drought deteriorations. More than 75 (73) countries' populations (GDP) will be completely affected by increasing drought risks under the 1.5 ĝC warming, while an extra 0.5 ĝC warming will further lead to an additional 17 countries suffering from a nearly unbearable situation. Our results demonstrate that limiting global warming to 1.5 ĝC, compared with 2 ĝC warming, can perceptibly mitigate the drought impacts over major regions of the world. © 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Global warming; Drought characteristics; Drought conditions; Global climate model; Gross domestic products; Infrastructure failures; Joint distributions; Pre-industrial levels; Socio-economic consequences; Drought; drought; environmental risk; global climate; global warming; socioeconomic conditions
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159513
作者单位	Gu, L., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China; Chen, J., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China, Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Yin, J., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China; C Sullivan, S., Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Wang, H.-M., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China; Guo, S., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China; Zhang, L., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China, Hubei Provincial Key Lab of W...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gu L.,Chen J.,Yin J.,et al. Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates[J],2020,24(1).
APA	Gu L..,Chen J..,Yin J..,C Sullivan S..,Wang H.-M..,...&Kim J.-S..(2020).Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(1).
MLA	Gu L.,et al."Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.1(2020).