气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020
	Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation
	Xuan Do H.; Zhao F.; Westra S.; Leonard M.; Gudmundsson L.; Eric Stanislas Boulange J.; Chang J.; Ciais P.; Gerten D.; Gosling S.N.; Müller Schmied H.; Stacke T.; Telteu C.-E.; Wada Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1543
结束页码	1564
卷号	24 期号:3
英文摘要	To improve the understanding of trends in extreme flows related to flood events at the global scale, historical and future changes of annual maxima of 7 d streamflow are investigated, using a comprehensive streamflow archive and six global hydrological models. The models' capacity to characterise trends in annual maxima of 7 d streamflow at the continental and global scale is evaluated across 3666 river gauge locations over the period from 1971 to 2005, focusing on four aspects of trends: (i) mean, (ii) standard deviation, (iii) percentage of locations showing significant trends and (iv) spatial pattern. Compared to observed trends, simulated trends driven by observed climate forcing generally have a higher mean, lower spread and a similar percentage of locations showing significant trends. Models show a low to moderate capacity to simulate spatial patterns of historical trends, with approximately only from 12 % to 25 % of the spatial variance of observed trends across all gauge stations accounted for by the simulations. Interestingly, there are statistically significant differences between trends simulated by global hydrological models (GHMs) forced with observational climate and by those forced by bias-corrected climate model output during the historical period, suggesting the important role of the stochastic natural (decadal, inter-annual) climate variability. Significant differences were found in simulated flood trends when averaged only at gauged locations compared to those averaged across all simulated grid cells, highlighting the potential for bias toward well-observed regions in our understanding of changes in floods. Future climate projections (simulated under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios) suggest a potentially high level of change in individual regions, with up to 35 % of cells showing a statistically significant trend (increase or decrease; at 10 % significance level) and greater changes indicated for the higher concentration pathway. Importantly, the observed streamflow database under-samples the percentage of locations consistently projected with increased flood hazards under the RCP6.0 greenhouse gas concentration scenario by more than an order of magnitude (0.9 % compared to 11.7 %). This finding indicates a highly uncertain future for both flood-prone communities and decision makers in the context of climate change. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Decision making; Floods; Gages; Gas hazards; Greenhouse gases; Location; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Stream flow; Climate variability; Future climate projections; Historical periods; Historical trends; Hydrological models; Significance levels; Standard deviation; Statistically significant difference; Climate change; climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; flood; future prospect; greenhouse gas; hydrological modeling; river system; simulation; streamflow
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159456
作者单位	Xuan Do, H., School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam, School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Zhao, F., School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Westra, S., School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Leonard, M., School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Gudmundsson, L., Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Eric Stanislas Boulange, J., Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Chang, J., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ/IP...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xuan Do H.,Zhao F.,Westra S.,et al. Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation[J],2020,24(3).
APA	Xuan Do H..,Zhao F..,Westra S..,Leonard M..,Gudmundsson L..,...&Wada Y..(2020).Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(3).
MLA	Xuan Do H.,et al."Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude - evidence from a model-observation investigation".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.3(2020).