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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020
	Flood trends in Europe: Are changes in small and big floods different?
	Bertola M.; Viglione A.; Lun D.; Hall J.; Blöschl G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	1805
结束页码	1822
卷号	24 期号:4
英文摘要	Recent studies have revealed evidence of trends in the median or mean flood discharge in Europe over the last 5 decades, with clear and coherent regional patterns. The aim of this study is to assess whether trends in flood discharges also occurred for larger return periods, accounting for the effect of catchment scale. We analyse 2370 flood discharge records, selected from a newly available pan-European flood database, with record length of at least 40 years over the period 1960-2010 and with contributing catchment area ranging from 5 to 100 000 km2. To estimate regional flood trends, we use a non-stationary regional flood frequency approach consisting of a regional Gumbel distribution, whose median and growth factor can vary in time with different strengths for different catchment sizes. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is used for parameter estimation. We quantify regional trends (and the related sample uncertainties), for floods of selected return periods and for selected catchment areas, across Europe and for three regions where coherent flood trends have been identified in previous studies. Results show that in northwestern Europe the trends in flood magnitude are generally positive. In small catchments (up to 100 km2), the 100-year flood increases more than the median flood, while the opposite is observed in medium and large catchments, where even some negative trends appear, especially in northwestern France. In southern Europe flood trends are generally negative. The 100-year flood decreases less than the median flood, and, in the small catchments, the median flood decreases less compared to the large catchments. In eastern Europe the regional trends are negative and do not depend on the return period, but catchment area plays a substantial role: the larger the catchment, the more negative the trend. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Markov chains; Runoff; Bayesian markov chain monte carlo; Catchment scale; Flood discharge; Flood magnitudes; Gumbel distribution; Regional flood frequencies; Regional pattern; Sample uncertainty; Floods; catchment; database; discharge; flood; return period; Europe
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159443
作者单位	Bertola, M., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria; Viglione, A., Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Polytechnic University of Turin, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, Turin, 10129, Italy; Lun, D., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria; Hall, J., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria; Blöschl, G., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13, Vienna, 1040, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bertola M.,Viglione A.,Lun D.,et al. Flood trends in Europe: Are changes in small and big floods different?[J],2020,24(4).
APA	Bertola M.,Viglione A.,Lun D.,Hall J.,&Blöschl G..(2020).Flood trends in Europe: Are changes in small and big floods different?.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(4).
MLA	Bertola M.,et al."Flood trends in Europe: Are changes in small and big floods different?".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.4(2020).