气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-24-2141-2020g
	Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins
	Vionnet V.; Fortin V.; Gaborit E.; Roy G.; Abrahamowicz M.; Gasset N.; W. Pomeroy J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2141
结束页码	2165
卷号	24 期号:4
英文摘要	From 19 to 22 June 2013, intense rainfall and concurrent snowmelt led to devastating floods in the Canadian Rockies, foothills and downstream areas of southern Alberta and southeastern British Columbia, Canada. Such an event is typical of late-spring floods in cold-region mountain headwater, combining intense precipitation with rapid melting of late-lying snowpack, and represents a challenge for hydrological forecasting systems. This study investigated the factors governing the ability to predict such an event. Three sources of uncertainty, other than the hydrological model processes and parameters, were considered: (i) the resolution of the atmospheric forcings, (ii) the snow and soil moisture initial conditions (ICs) and (iii) the representation of the soil texture. The Global Environmental Multiscale hydrological modeling platform (GEM-Hydro), running at a 1 km grid spacing, was used to simulate hydrometeorological conditions in the main headwater basins of southern Alberta during this event. The GEM atmospheric model and the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system were combined to generate atmospheric forcing at 10, 2.5 and 1 km over southern Alberta. Gridded estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) were used to replace the model SWE at peak snow accumulation and generate alternative snow and soil moisture ICs before the event. Two global soil texture datasets were also used. Overall 12 simulations of the flooding event were carried out. Results show that the resolution of the atmospheric forcing affected primarily the flood volume and peak flow in all river basins due to a more accurate estimation of intensity and total amount of precipitation during the flooding event provided by CaPA analysis at convection-permitting scales (2.5 and 1 km). Basin-averaged snowmelt also changed with the resolution due to changes in near-surface wind and resulting turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt. Snow ICs were the main sources of uncertainty for half of the headwater basins. Finally, the soil texture had less impact and only affected peak flow magnitude and timing for some stations. These results highlight the need to combine atmospheric forcing at convection-permitting scales with high-quality snow ICs to provide accurate streamflow predictions during late-spring floods in cold-region mountain river basins. The predictive improvement by inclusion of high-elevation weather stations in the precipitation analysis and the need for accurate mountain snow information suggest the necessity of integrated observation and prediction systems for forecasting extreme events in mountain river basins. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric movements; Floods; Forecasting; Integrated circuits; Landforms; Rivers; Snow melting systems; Soil moisture; Textures; Watersheds; British Columbia , Canada; Data assimilation systems; Hydrological forecasting; Hydrometeorological conditions; Intense precipitation; Snow water equivalent; Sources of uncertainty; Streamflow prediction; Snow; assessment method; atmospheric forcing; flood; flooding; headwater; hydrological modeling; hydrometeorology; peak flow; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; snow accumulation; snow water equivalent; snowpack; soil moisture; soil texture; streamflow; Alberta; British Columbia; Canada; Rocky Mountains; Rocky Mountains
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159424
作者单位	Vionnet, V., Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, Environmental Numerical Research Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; Fortin, V., Environmental Numerical Research Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; Gaborit, E., Environmental Numerical Research Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; Roy, G., Environmental Numerical Research Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; Abrahamowicz, M., Environmental Numerical Research Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; Gasset, N., Environmental Numerical Prediction Development, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; W. Pomeroy, J., Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vionnet V.,Fortin V.,Gaborit E.,et al. Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins[J],2020,24(4).
APA	Vionnet V..,Fortin V..,Gaborit E..,Roy G..,Abrahamowicz M..,...&W. Pomeroy J..(2020).Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(4).
MLA	Vionnet V.,et al."Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.4(2020).