气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-2593-2020
	Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation
	Kraemer B.M.; Seimon A.; Adrian R.; McIntyre P.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2593
结束页码	2608
卷号	24 期号:5
英文摘要	Lakes provide many important benefits to society, including drinking water, flood attenuation, nutrition, and recreation. Anthropogenic environmental changes may affect these benefits by altering lake water levels. However, background climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation can obscure long-term trends in water levels, creating uncertainty over the strength and ubiquity of anthropogenic effects on lakes. Here we account for the effects of background climate variation and test for long-term (1992-2019) trends in water levels in 200 globally distributed large lakes using satellite altimetry data. The median percentage of water level variation associated with background climate variation was 58 %, with an additional 10 % explained by seasonal variation and 25 % by the long-term trend. The relative influence of specific axes of background climate variation on water levels varied substantially across and within regions. After removing the effects of background climate variation on water levels, long-term water level trend estimates were lower (median: +0.8 cm yr-1) than calculated from raw water level data (median: +1.2 cm yr-1). However, the trends became more statistically significant in 86 % of lakes after removing the effects of background climate variation (the median p value of trends changed from 0.16 to 0.02). Thus, robust tests for long-term trends in lake water levels which may or may not be anthropogenic will require prior isolation and removal of the effects of background climate variation. Our findings suggest that background climate variation often masks long-term trends in environmental variables but can be accounted for through more comprehensive statistical analyses. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Lakes; Water levels; Anthropogenic effects; Climate oscillation; Environmental change; Environmental variables; North Atlantic oscillations; Satellite altimetry data; Southern oscillation; Water level variations; Potable water; anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; lake level; North Atlantic Oscillation; satellite altimetry; seasonal variation; water level
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159400
作者单位	Kraemer, B.M., Ecosystem Research Department, IGB Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany, Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Seimon, A., Department of Geography and Planning, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, United States; Adrian, R., Ecosystem Research Department, IGB Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany; McIntyre, P.B., Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States, Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kraemer B.M.,Seimon A.,Adrian R.,et al. Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation[J],2020,24(5).
APA	Kraemer B.M.,Seimon A.,Adrian R.,&McIntyre P.B..(2020).Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(5).
MLA	Kraemer B.M.,et al."Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.5(2020).