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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-2791-2020
	Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett-Lewis process: New developments
	Onof C.; Wang L.-P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2791
结束页码	2815
卷号	24 期号:5
英文摘要	The use of Poisson cluster processes to model rainfall time series at a range of scales now has a history of more than 30 years. Among them, the randomised (also called modified) Bartlett-Lewis model (RBL1) is particularly popular, while a refinement of this model was proposed recently (RBL2; Kaczmarska et al., 2014). Fitting such models essentially relies upon minimising the difference between theoretical statistics of the rainfall signal and their observed estimates. The first statistics are obtained using closed form analytical expressions for statistics of the orders 1 to 3 of the rainfall depths, as well as useful approximations of the wet-dry structure properties. The second are standard estimates of these statistics for each month of the data. This paper discusses two issues that are important for the optimal model fitting of RBL1 and RBL2. The first issue is that, when revisiting the derivation of the analytical expressions for the rainfall depth moments, it appears that the space of possible parameters is wider than has been assumed in past papers. The second issue is that care must be exerted in the way monthly statistics are estimated from the data. The impact of these two issues upon both models, in particular upon the estimation of extreme rainfall depths at hourly and sub-hourly timescales, is examined using 69 years of 5 min and 105 years of 10 min rainfall data from Bochum (Germany) and Uccle (Belgium), respectively. © 2020 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Statistics; Analytical expressions; Closed form; Extreme rainfall; Optimal model; Poisson cluster process; Rainfall data; Rainfall depths; Structure property; Rain; estimation method; extreme event; hydrological modeling; numerical model; Poisson ratio; rainfall; time series analysis; Europe
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159387
作者单位	Onof, C., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Wang, L.-P., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom, Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617, Taiwan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Onof C.,Wang L.-P.. Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett-Lewis process: New developments[J],2020,24(5).
APA	Onof C.,&Wang L.-P..(2020).Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett-Lewis process: New developments.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(5).
MLA	Onof C.,et al."Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett-Lewis process: New developments".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.5(2020).