气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020
	Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs
	Yang Y.; Zhang S.; Roderick M.L.; McVicar T.R.; Yang D.; Liu W.; Li X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	2921
结束页码	2930
卷号	24 期号:6
英文摘要	Anthropogenic warming has been projected to increase global drought for the 21st century when calculated using traditional offline drought indices. However, this contradicts observations of the overall global greening and little systematic change in runoff over the past few decades and climate projections of future greening with slight increases in global runoff for the coming century. This calls into question the drought projections based on traditional offline drought indices. Here we calculate a widely used traditional drought index (i.e., the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) using direct outputs from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (PDSI_CMIP5) such that the hydrologic consistency between PDSI_CMIP5 and CMIP5 models is maintained. We find that the PDSI_CMIP5-depicted drought increases (in terms of drought severity, frequency, and extent) are much smaller than that reported when PDSI is calculated using the traditional offline approach that has been widely used in previous drought assessments under climate change. Further analyses indicate that the overestimation of PDSI drought increases reported previously using the PDSI is primarily due to ignoring the vegetation response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) in the traditional offline calculations. Finally, we show that the overestimation of drought using the traditional PDSI approach can be minimized by accounting for the effect of CO2 on evapotranspiration. © 2020 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Drought; Runoff; Anthropogenic warming; Climate projection; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Drought severity; Off-line approaches; Palmer drought severity indices; Systematic changes; Vegetation response; Climate models; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; concentration (composition); drought; environmental assessment; evapotranspiration; hydrological modeling; runoff; vegetation
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159385
作者单位	Yang, Y., State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Zhang, S., State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Roderick, M.L., Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia; McVicar, T.R., Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia; Yang, D., State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Liu, W., Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Li, X., S...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang Y.,Zhang S.,Roderick M.L.,et al. Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs[J],2020,24(6).
APA	Yang Y..,Zhang S..,Roderick M.L..,McVicar T.R..,Yang D..,...&Li X..(2020).Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(6).
MLA	Yang Y.,et al."Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.6(2020).